We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Valley Boys
Class C South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. MVC. 5 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish10 of 14 (213 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)8–10
State meet linetop 7 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.4%5% before the conference meets
Projected points213
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)21:16
Pack: 1st to 5th runner632 s
Scoring five's projected places11 · 14 · 26 · 82 · 105
6th runner behind the 5thno 6th runner
Against the teams around them
Maine Coast Waldorf (projected 9)-65 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Waynflete158 pts
Their points vs the last team in+55
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Valley runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #11 overall | 18:01 | 97%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #14 overall | 18:24 | 91%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #26 overall | 18:56 | 70%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #82 overall | 22:25 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #105 overall | 28:33 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.