We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Madison Boys
Class C South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. MVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish8 of 14 (199 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)6–10
State meet linetop 7 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.26%27% before the conference meets
Projected points199
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)19:50
Pack: 1st to 5th runner288 s
Scoring five's projected places3 · 40 · 46 · 53 · 66
6th runner behind the 5th139 s
Against the teams around them
Waynflete (projected 7)-27 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Waynflete158 pts
Their points vs the last team in+41
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Madison runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #3 overall | 16:44 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #40 overall | 19:58 | 18%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #46 overall | 20:23 | 6%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #53 overall | 20:33 | 4%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #66 overall | 21:31 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #91 overall | 23:51 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #102 overall | 27:23 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.