We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

Class B Boys · State meet

13 teams and 12 individual qualifiers. Who leads and why, every team's chance to win and finish top 3, and every runner.

Frozen Fri Oct 30, 11:30 PM · the numbers we'll grade after the race

Sat Oct 31Cony High School, AugustaHow we got the numbers

Teams13

Runners101

FieldRegionals qualifiers

Simulated races4,000

Results throughOct 24

Course+28 s vs median

Sat forecast44°F · no heat cost

The preview

Conditions in the numbers: Cony (Augusta) · State course (2025-) rated +28 s vs a median Maine course. Sat 10 AM–1 PM forecast: 44°F, dew point 24°F, wind 12 mph, no rain expected · no heat cost.

Yarmouth lead the projection clearly (est. 99% to win). Why Yarmouth: their scoring five average 47 s per runner faster than Freeport's. Pack, 1st to 5th runner: 57 s (Freeport: 114 s).

Closest projected battle: Mt. Desert Island vs Medomak Valley, 4 points apart (281 to 285).

In the fight for the top 3: Caribou est. 53%; Cape Elizabeth est. 32%; Greely est. 23%.

Projected individual winner: Caribou · runner 1, est. 38% to win; 7 runners have a better than even chance of the top 10.

Team projection · free13 teams

#	Team	Chance to win est.	Top 3 est.	Pts	Scoring five (places)
1	YarmouthSouth · finish 1	99%	>99%	26	2 · 3 · 4 · 5 · 13
2	FreeportSouth · finish 2–4	1%	86%	85	6 · 9 · 12 · 17 · 56
3	CaribouNorth · finish 2–5	<1%	53%	115	1 · 10 · 11 · 58 · 59
↑ Top 3: the state-meet trophies
4	Cape ElizabethSouth · finish 2–6	<1%	32%	122	7 · 25 · 31 · 38 · 50
5	GreelySouth · finish 3–6	<1%	23%	134	19 · 29 · 30 · 36 · 52
6	YorkSouth · finish 4–8	<1%	4%	165	23 · 34 · 43 · 46 · 61
7	Presque IsleNorth · finish 5–9	<1%	1%	192	18 · 33 · 53 · 63 · 66
8	John BapstNorth · finish 6–9	<1%	<1%	211	27 · 39 · 54 · 68 · 69
9	Lake RegionSouth · finish 7–11	<1%	<1%	240	21 · 49 · 67 · 70 · 80
10	Erskine AcademyNorth · finish 9–12	<1%	<1%	254	24 · 47 · 55 · 87 · 91
11	GardinerNorth · finish 9–13	<1%	<1%	261	32 · 51 · 57 · 83 · 90
12	Mt. Desert IslandNorth · finish 10–13	<1%	<1%	281	44 · 48 · 72 · 84 · 89
13	Medomak ValleyNorth · finish 10–13	<1%	<1%	285	14 · 65 · 78 · 82 · 93

Order = projected finish (points). "Finish a–b" = where the team lands in 8 of 10 simulated races. Region = the regional it qualified from.

Every runner · by school and number101 runners

Runners are shown by school and number: runner 1 is that team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); time, likely place and chances are the same for everyone.

#	Runner	Time	Likely place	Top 10 est.	Win est.
1	Caribou · runner 1	16:37	1–8	95%	38%
2	Yarmouth · runner 1	16:57	1–12	87%	20%
3	Yarmouth · runner 2	17:08	1–15	80%	12%
4	Yarmouth · runner 3	17:18	2–18	71%	7%
5	Yarmouth · runner 4	17:29	3–22	61%	4%
6	Freeport · runner 1	17:34	3–24	55%	3%
7	Cape Elizabeth · runner 1	17:35	3–25	53%	3%
8	Poland · runner 1individual	17:42	3–28	45%	2%
9	Freeport · runner 2	17:46	4–29	43%	2%
10	Caribou · runner 2	17:53	5–33	34%	1%
11	Caribou · runner 3	17:53	5–32	33%	<1%
12	Freeport · runner 3	17:54	5–33	32%	1%
13	Yarmouth · runner 5	17:55	5–33	34%	<1%
14	Medomak Valley · runner 1	17:55	5–33	32%	1%
15	Yarmouth · runner 6	17:57	5–34	31%	<1%
16	Foxcroft Academy · runner 1individual	17:57	5–34	30%	<1%
17	Freeport · runner 4	18:01	5–35	28%	<1%
18	Presque Isle · runner 1	18:13	8–42	17%	<1%
19	Greely · runner 1	18:14	8–42	18%	<1%
20	Nokomis · runner 1individual	18:17	8–43	16%	<1%
21	Lake Region · runner 1	18:25	10–48	11%	<1%
22	Gray-New Gloucester · runner 1individual	18:29	11–48	9%	<1%
23	York · runner 1	18:32	12–50	7%	<1%
24	Erskine Academy · runner 1	18:33	12–51	7%	<1%
25	Cape Elizabeth · runner 2	18:35	13–52	6%	<1%
26	Foxcroft Academy · runner 2individual	18:36	13–52	6%	<1%
27	John Bapst · runner 1	18:36	13–53	7%	<1%
28	Wells · runner 1individual	18:38	13–53	6%	<1%
29	Greely · runner 2	18:44	15–56	4%	<1%
30	Greely · runner 3	18:45	16–56	3%	<1%
31	Cape Elizabeth · runner 3	18:46	17–57	3%	<1%
32	Gardiner · runner 1	18:47	16–57	3%	<1%
33	Presque Isle · runner 2	18:48	16–57	3%	<1%
34	York · runner 2	18:51	18–59	2%	<1%
35	Poland · runner 2individual	18:52	17–59	2%	<1%
36	Greely · runner 4	18:53	19–60	2%	<1%
37	Gray-New Gloucester · runner 2individual	18:53	18–59	2%	<1%
38	Cape Elizabeth · runner 4	18:56	19–61	2%	<1%
39	John Bapst · runner 2	18:58	20–61	1%	<1%
40	Cony · runner 1individual	18:58	20–62	2%	<1%
41	Yarmouth · runner 7	18:59	20–62	2%	<1%
42	Lincoln Academy · runner 1individual	19:00	20–63	2%	<1%
43	York · runner 3	19:02	21–63	1%	<1%
44	Mt. Desert Island · runner 1	19:04	23–65	1%	<1%
45	Gray-New Gloucester · runner 3individual	19:05	22–65	1%	<1%
46	York · runner 4	19:06	23–65	1%	<1%
47	Erskine Academy · runner 2	19:06	23–65	1%	<1%
48	Mt. Desert Island · runner 2	19:08	24–65	1%	<1%
49	Lake Region · runner 2	19:11	25–66	<1%	<1%
50	Cape Elizabeth · runner 5	19:12	25–66	<1%	<1%
51	Gardiner · runner 2	19:17	27–69	<1%	<1%
52	Greely · runner 5	19:17	27–68	<1%	<1%
53	Presque Isle · runner 3	19:18	27–68	<1%	<1%
54	John Bapst · runner 3	19:21	29–70	<1%	<1%
55	Erskine Academy · runner 3	19:21	29–70	<1%	<1%
56	Freeport · runner 5	19:28	32–72	<1%	<1%
57	Gardiner · runner 3	19:30	33–72	<1%	<1%
58	Caribou · runner 4	19:32	33–73	<1%	<1%
59	Caribou · runner 5	19:34	35–74	<1%	<1%
60	Cape Elizabeth · runner 6	19:39	38–75	<1%	<1%
61	York · runner 5	19:39	37–75	<1%	<1%
62	Greely · runner 6	19:39	37–75	<1%	<1%
63	Presque Isle · runner 4	19:41	38–75	<1%	<1%
64	Greely · runner 7	19:44	39–76	<1%	<1%
65	Medomak Valley · runner 2	19:46	40–76	<1%	<1%
66	Presque Isle · runner 5	19:49	41–77	<1%	<1%
67	Lake Region · runner 3	19:54	44–78	<1%	<1%
68	John Bapst · runner 4	19:54	45–78	<1%	<1%
69	John Bapst · runner 5	19:59	46–79	<1%	<1%
70	Lake Region · runner 4	19:59	45–79	<1%	<1%
71	John Bapst · runner 6	20:07	50–80	<1%	<1%
72	Mt. Desert Island · runner 3	20:08	51–81	<1%	<1%
73	Freeport · runner 6	20:11	53–81	<1%	<1%
74	Cape Elizabeth · runner 7	20:13	53–82	<1%	<1%
75	Caribou · runner 6	20:17	55–82	<1%	<1%
76	Caribou · runner 7	20:21	57–83	<1%	<1%
77	York · runner 6	20:24	58–83	<1%	<1%
78	Medomak Valley · runner 3	20:26	58–83	<1%	<1%
79	Freeport · runner 7	20:28	58–84	<1%	<1%
80	Lake Region · runner 5	20:39	65–85	<1%	<1%
81	Ellsworth · runner 1individual	20:47	66–86	<1%	<1%
82	Medomak Valley · runner 4	21:07	73–89	<1%	<1%
83	Gardiner · runner 4	21:08	73–88	<1%	<1%
84	Mt. Desert Island · runner 4	21:15	74–89	<1%	<1%
85	Lake Region · runner 6	21:22	76–90	<1%	<1%
86	John Bapst · runner 7	21:31	79–91	<1%	<1%
87	Erskine Academy · runner 4	21:34	79–91	<1%	<1%
88	Lake Region · runner 7	21:37	80–91	<1%	<1%
89	Mt. Desert Island · runner 5	22:05	84–94	<1%	<1%
90	Gardiner · runner 5	22:17	86–95	<1%	<1%
91	Erskine Academy · runner 5	22:22	86–95	<1%	<1%
92	Erskine Academy · runner 6	22:33	87–95	<1%	<1%
93	Medomak Valley · runner 5	22:37	88–96	<1%	<1%
94	Mt. Desert Island · runner 6	22:43	88–96	<1%	<1%
95	Erskine Academy · runner 7	22:45	89–96	<1%	<1%
96	Gardiner · runner 6	23:05	91–96	<1%	<1%
97	Gardiner · runner 7	24:28	97–99	<1%	<1%
98	Medomak Valley · runner 6	25:00	97–100	<1%	<1%
99	Mt. Desert Island · runner 7	25:19	97–100	<1%	<1%
100	Presque Isle · runner 6	25:30	98–100	<1%	<1%
101	Presque Isle · runner 7	30:10	101–101	<1%	<1%

Show all 101 runners

Chances, not calls: 4,000 simulated races. Every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do (more for runners with little data) and each team also gets a shared good or bad day. Qualified teams run the runners who ran for them at their regional (7 at most); individual qualifiers run for themselves and don't count in team scores. The MPA decides who qualifies. We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete.