We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

← State meet · Class A · Boys

Class A Boys · State meet

15 teams and 9 individual qualifiers. Who leads and why, every team's chance to win and finish top 3, and every runner.

Frozen Fri Oct 30, 11:30 PM · the numbers we'll grade after the race

Sat Oct 31Cony High School, AugustaHow we got the numbers

Teams15

Runners113

FieldRegionals qualifiers

Simulated races4,000

Results throughOct 24

Course+28 s vs median

Sat forecast44°F · no heat cost

The preview

Conditions in the numbers: Cony (Augusta) · State course (2025-) rated +28 s vs a median Maine course. Sat 10 AM–1 PM forecast: 44°F, dew point 24°F, wind 12 mph, no rain expected · no heat cost.

Portland lead the projection clearly (est. 87% to win). Why Portland: their scoring five average 26 s per runner faster than Thornton Academy's. Pack, 1st to 5th runner: 7 s (Thornton Academy: 75 s).

Closest projected battle: Bonny Eagle vs Hampden Academy, 2 points apart (179 to 181).

In the fight for the top 3: Thornton Academy est. 54%; Falmouth est. 54%.

Projected individual winner: Falmouth · runner 1, est. 25% to win; 4 runners have a better than even chance of the top 10.

Team projection · free15 teams

#	Team	Chance to win est.	Top 3 est.	Pts	Scoring five (places)
1	PortlandSouth · finish 1–2	87%	98%	40	7 · 8 · 9 · 10 · 11
2	Thornton AcademySouth · finish 2–7	5%	54%	114	5 · 17 · 22 · 32 · 47
3	FalmouthSouth · finish 2–7	5%	54%	135	1 · 12 · 16 · 49 · 71
↑ Top 3: the state-meet trophies
4	GorhamSouth · finish 3–10	<1%	15%	174	24 · 26 · 27 · 46 · 65
5	Bonny EagleSouth · finish 3–10	1%	19%	179	21 · 25 · 41 · 45 · 63
6	Hampden AcademyNorth · finish 3–10	1%	19%	181	23 · 33 · 36 · 48 · 55
7	Mt. BlueNorth · finish 3–10	<1%	13%	183	4 · 6 · 56 · 61 · 77
8	ScarboroughSouth · finish 3–10	<1%	11%	188	3 · 31 · 40 · 50 · 83
9	MessalonskeeNorth · finish 4–11	<1%	7%	191	18 · 20 · 35 · 57 · 78
10	Camden HillsNorth · finish 4–11	<1%	7%	215	13 · 28 · 44 · 73 · 79
11	SanfordSouth · finish 7–12	<1%	<1%	244	15 · 19 · 69 · 75 · 92
12	Oxford HillsNorth · finish 9–14	<1%	<1%	277	34 · 42 · 53 · 74 · 102
13	South PortlandSouth · finish 11–15	<1%	<1%	318	52 · 54 · 58 · 86 · 100
14	MassabesicSouth · finish 13–15	<1%	<1%	348	37 · 43 · 95 · 97 · 109
15	BrunswickNorth · finish 12–15	<1%	<1%	366	60 · 66 · 82 · 98 · 99

Order = projected finish (points). "Finish a–b" = where the team lands in 8 of 10 simulated races. Region = the regional it qualified from.

Every runner · by school and number113 runners

Runners are shown by school and number: runner 1 is that team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); time, likely place and chances are the same for everyone.

#	Runner	Time	Likely place	Top 10 est.	Win est.
1	Falmouth · runner 1	16:47	1–15	82%	25%
2	Bangor · runner 1individual	16:57	1–20	73%	16%
3	Scarborough · runner 1	17:02	1–21	71%	13%
4	Mt. Blue · runner 1	17:16	2–29	57%	7%
5	Thornton Academy · runner 1	17:23	2–33	47%	5%
6	Mt. Blue · runner 2	17:23	3–33	46%	4%
7	Portland · runner 1	17:30	3–38	40%	4%
8	Portland · runner 2	17:31	3–37	38%	3%
9	Portland · runner 3	17:36	4–40	35%	2%
10	Portland · runner 4	17:38	4–41	33%	2%
11	Portland · runner 5	17:38	4–43	31%	2%
12	Falmouth · runner 2	17:38	4–42	33%	2%
13	Camden Hills · runner 1	17:39	4–42	32%	2%
14	Portland · runner 6	17:42	5–46	29%	2%
15	Sanford · runner 1	17:48	6–49	23%	<1%
16	Falmouth · runner 3	17:49	6–49	23%	1%
17	Thornton Academy · runner 2	17:50	6–50	21%	<1%
18	Messalonskee · runner 1	17:51	6–50	21%	1%
19	Sanford · runner 2	17:51	6–52	21%	<1%
20	Messalonskee · runner 2	17:55	7–52	17%	<1%
21	Bonny Eagle · runner 1	17:55	7–52	18%	<1%
22	Thornton Academy · runner 3	17:58	8–55	15%	<1%
23	Hampden Academy · runner 1	18:01	9–57	14%	<1%
24	Gorham · runner 1	18:02	8–56	14%	<1%
25	Bonny Eagle · runner 2	18:03	8–58	14%	<1%
26	Gorham · runner 2	18:05	10–60	12%	<1%
27	Gorham · runner 3	18:06	10–59	11%	<1%
28	Camden Hills · runner 2	18:06	10–60	11%	<1%
29	Brewer · runner 1individual	18:07	10–60	12%	<1%
30	Portland · runner 7	18:12	12–63	9%	<1%
31	Scarborough · runner 2	18:12	12–64	8%	<1%
32	Thornton Academy · runner 4	18:14	12–65	7%	<1%
33	Hampden Academy · runner 2	18:17	13–67	7%	<1%
34	Oxford Hills · runner 1	18:18	14–67	6%	<1%
35	Messalonskee · runner 3	18:22	15–70	5%	<1%
36	Hampden Academy · runner 3	18:24	16–70	5%	<1%
37	Massabesic · runner 1	18:25	16–72	4%	<1%
38	Mt. Ararat · runner 1individual	18:26	16–73	4%	<1%
39	Fryeburg Academy · runner 1individual	18:26	17–72	4%	<1%
40	Scarborough · runner 3	18:26	17–72	4%	<1%
41	Bonny Eagle · runner 3	18:27	17–72	4%	<1%
42	Oxford Hills · runner 2	18:28	18–72	3%	<1%
43	Massabesic · runner 2	18:29	18–74	3%	<1%
44	Camden Hills · runner 3	18:29	18–74	3%	<1%
45	Bonny Eagle · runner 4	18:33	19–76	2%	<1%
46	Gorham · runner 4	18:33	20–76	2%	<1%
47	Thornton Academy · runner 5	18:38	22–78	2%	<1%
48	Hampden Academy · runner 4	18:39	23–78	2%	<1%
49	Falmouth · runner 4	18:39	23–79	2%	<1%
50	Scarborough · runner 4	18:41	23–81	2%	<1%
51	Westbrook · runner 1individual	18:41	24–80	1%	<1%
52	South Portland · runner 1	18:43	24–80	2%	<1%
53	Oxford Hills · runner 3	18:44	26–82	1%	<1%
54	South Portland · runner 2	18:44	25–81	1%	<1%
55	Hampden Academy · runner 5	18:45	25–82	1%	<1%
56	Mt. Blue · runner 3	18:45	25–82	1%	<1%
57	Messalonskee · runner 4	18:46	26–82	<1%	<1%
58	South Portland · runner 3	18:48	25–83	1%	<1%
59	Skowhegan · runner 1individual	18:51	30–84	<1%	<1%
60	Brunswick · runner 1	18:51	29–85	<1%	<1%
61	Mt. Blue · runner 4	18:52	29–86	<1%	<1%
62	Hampden Academy · runner 6	18:53	30–85	<1%	<1%
63	Bonny Eagle · runner 5	18:53	29–86	<1%	<1%
64	Marshwood · runner 1individual	18:55	31–86	<1%	<1%
65	Gorham · runner 5	18:56	30–88	<1%	<1%
66	Brunswick · runner 2	18:57	31–87	<1%	<1%
67	Bonny Eagle · runner 6	18:59	34–89	<1%	<1%
68	Hampden Academy · runner 7	19:00	34–89	<1%	<1%
69	Sanford · runner 3	19:03	35–90	<1%	<1%
70	Bangor · runner 2individual	19:03	34–90	<1%	<1%
71	Falmouth · runner 5	19:04	36–90	<1%	<1%
72	Falmouth · runner 6	19:04	36–90	<1%	<1%
73	Camden Hills · runner 4	19:07	37–91	<1%	<1%
74	Oxford Hills · runner 4	19:14	42–94	<1%	<1%
75	Sanford · runner 4	19:14	42–94	<1%	<1%
76	Thornton Academy · runner 6	19:17	44–95	<1%	<1%
77	Mt. Blue · runner 5	19:18	44–95	<1%	<1%
78	Messalonskee · runner 5	19:20	45–96	<1%	<1%
79	Camden Hills · runner 5	19:22	47–97	<1%	<1%
80	Camden Hills · runner 6	19:22	48–97	<1%	<1%
81	Falmouth · runner 7	19:23	47–97	<1%	<1%
82	Brunswick · runner 3	19:23	47–97	<1%	<1%
83	Scarborough · runner 5	19:24	49–97	<1%	<1%
84	Mt. Blue · runner 6	19:27	52–98	<1%	<1%
85	Bonny Eagle · runner 7	19:29	52–98	<1%	<1%
86	South Portland · runner 4	19:34	55–100	<1%	<1%
87	Camden Hills · runner 7	19:35	55–100	<1%	<1%
88	Gorham · runner 6	19:35	55–100	<1%	<1%
89	Scarborough · runner 6	19:37	57–100	<1%	<1%
90	Edward Little · runner 1individual	19:42	59–101	<1%	<1%
91	Thornton Academy · runner 7	19:46	63–102	<1%	<1%
92	Sanford · runner 5	19:48	64–102	<1%	<1%
93	Scarborough · runner 7	19:49	65–103	<1%	<1%
94	Messalonskee · runner 6	20:02	72–105	<1%	<1%
95	Massabesic · runner 3	20:02	73–105	<1%	<1%
96	Sanford · runner 6	20:03	73–106	<1%	<1%
97	Massabesic · runner 4	20:04	74–105	<1%	<1%
98	Brunswick · runner 4	20:07	74–106	<1%	<1%
99	Brunswick · runner 5	20:10	77–106	<1%	<1%
100	South Portland · runner 5	20:14	77–107	<1%	<1%
101	Messalonskee · runner 7	20:16	80–107	<1%	<1%
102	Oxford Hills · runner 5	20:18	80–107	<1%	<1%
103	Mt. Blue · runner 7	20:19	81–107	<1%	<1%
104	Brunswick · runner 6	20:25	84–108	<1%	<1%
105	Brunswick · runner 7	20:25	85–108	<1%	<1%
106	Sanford · runner 7	20:31	87–108	<1%	<1%
107	Oxford Hills · runner 6	20:33	88–108	<1%	<1%
108	South Portland · runner 6	21:00	97–110	<1%	<1%
109	Massabesic · runner 5	21:18	102–110	<1%	<1%
110	South Portland · runner 7	21:46	106–111	<1%	<1%
111	Massabesic · runner 6	22:22	109–112	<1%	<1%
112	Oxford Hills · runner 7	22:53	111–112	<1%	<1%
113	Massabesic · runner 7	24:10	113–113	<1%	<1%

Show all 113 runners

Chances, not calls: 4,000 simulated races. Every runner's time moves as much as runners' times really do (more for runners with little data) and each team also gets a shared good or bad day. Qualified teams run the runners who ran for them at their regional (7 at most); individual qualifiers run for themselves and don't count in team scores. The MPA decides who qualifies. We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete.