We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Scarborough Girls
Class A South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. SMAA. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish10 of 16 (252 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)6–11
State meet linetop 8 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.40%40% before the conference meets
Projected points252
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)23:02
Pack: 1st to 5th runner50 s
Scoring five's projected places44 · 45 · 47 · 59 · 61
6th runner behind the 5th69 s
Against the teams around them
South Portland (projected 9)-19 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Deering215 pts
Their points vs the last team in+37
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Scarborough runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #44 overall | 22:41 | 21%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #45 overall | 22:44 | 21%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #47 overall | 22:49 | 18%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #59 overall | 23:24 | 6%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5Little dataSCORERprojected #61 overall | 23:31 | 25%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #79 overall | 24:40 | 3%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #94 overall | 25:54 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.