We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Cheverus Girls
Class A South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. SMAA. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish5 of 16 (148 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)4–7
State meet linetop 8 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.5%
To States est.98%98% before the conference meets
Projected points148
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)21:46
Pack: 1st to 5th runner268 s
Scoring five's projected places3 · 16 · 31 · 35 · 65
6th runner behind the 5th142 s
Against the teams around them
Marshwood (projected 6)+46 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Deering215 pts
Their points vs the last team in-67
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Cheverus runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #3 overall | 19:19 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #16 overall | 21:04 | 85%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #31 overall | 22:17 | 37%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #35 overall | 22:25 | 32%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #65 overall | 23:47 | 2%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #95 overall | 26:08 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #100 overall | 26:22 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.