We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Windham Girls
Class A South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. SMAA. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish15 of 16 (387 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)13–16
State meet linetop 8 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points387
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)24:45
Pack: 1st to 5th runner169 s
Scoring five's projected places60 · 63 · 88 · 91 · 96
6th runner behind the 5th2 s
Against the teams around them
Bonny Eagle (projected 14)-18 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Deering215 pts
Their points vs the last team in+172
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Windham runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #60 overall | 23:25 | 6%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #63 overall | 23:34 | 5%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #88 overall | 25:12 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #91 overall | 25:22 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #96 overall | 26:14 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #98 overall | 26:16 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #101 overall | 26:31 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.