We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Gorham Girls
Class A South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. SMAA. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish12 of 16 (317 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)10–13
State meet linetop 8 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.2%2% before the conference meets
Projected points317
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)23:55
Pack: 1st to 5th runner134 s
Scoring five's projected places38 · 52 · 77 · 78 · 81
6th runner behind the 5th1 s
Against the teams around them
Kennebunk (projected 11)+8 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Deering215 pts
Their points vs the last team in+102
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Gorham runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #38 overall | 22:34 | 26%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #52 overall | 22:56 | 15%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #77 overall | 24:38 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #78 overall | 24:39 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #81 overall | 24:48 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #82 overall | 24:48 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #83 overall | 24:51 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.