We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Portland Girls
Class A South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. SMAA. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish2 of 16 (72 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)1–3
State meet linetop 8 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+10 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.38%
Top 3 est.96%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points72
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)20:45
Pack: 1st to 5th runner171 s
Scoring five's projected places2 · 5 · 15 · 24 · 26
6th runner behind the 5th4 s
Against the teams around them
Thornton Academy (projected 3)+31 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Deering215 pts
Their points vs the last team in-143
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Portland runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #2 overall | 19:00 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #5 overall | 20:09 | 98%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #15 overall | 20:59 | 88%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #24 overall | 21:44 | 61%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #26 overall | 21:51 | 54%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #27 overall | 21:55 | 53%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #28 overall | 22:03 | 48%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.