We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

Maine high school cross country · 2026 · Regionals, graded

Regionals: how we did

Before the races we projected every team in all 12 Regional races. The projection was frozen Friday night, before the first race. Here's every team, what we said and what happened.

Sat Oct 2412 races137 teams scoredThe projection State meet projection →

State-meet team spots68 of 75teams we had in the top half went

Team winners8 of 12our projected #1 won the race

Within one place107 of 13761 teams exactly where we had them

90% or more to States56 of 58teams we showed at est. 90% or more that went

Teams that beat our numbers the most

MarshwoodClass A South boys · we had #15, finished #11

Lake RegionClass B South boys · we had #9, finished #5

Bonny EagleClass A South boys · we had #6, finished #3

Mt. Desert IslandClass B North boys · we had #7, finished #4

WaynfleteClass C South boys · we had #7, finished #4

Boothbay/WiscassetClass C South girls · we had #5, finished #2

Race day vs our times

Places held up best. Times moved with the day: girls' races ran about 16 seconds slower than we projected overall, boys' about 5. That's the course and the weather on the day, and it doesn't change who finishes where.

Class A North · Boys6 of 12 teams to StatesEvery runner →

Finish#	Team	Went	We had	Pts	Our pts	Win chance est.	To States est.
1	Hampden Academy1 place better than we had	Yes	2	63	74	31%	99%
2	Camden Hills	Yes	1	82	72	31%	99%
3	Messalonskee	Yes	3	86	81	15%	97%
4	Mt. Blue	Yes	4	99	87	20%	99%
5	Oxford Hills	Yes	5	152	139	1%	77%
6	Brunswick2 places better than we had	Yeswe had out	8	174	195	<1%	38%
↑ State meet line: the top 6 teams
7	Bangor2 places better than we had	No	9	182	204	<1%	12%
8	Brewer	Nowe had in	6	194	171	<1%	36%
9	Mt. Ararat	No	7	202	175	<1%	44%
10	Edward Little	No	10	255	279	<1%	<1%
11	Lewiston	No	11	269	294	<1%	<1%
12	Skowhegan	No	12	296	307	<1%	<1%

Our projected winner didn't win. 6 of 12 teams finished exactly where we had them, 8 within one place. State-meet calls: 5 of 6 right. The race ran 3 seconds slower than our projected times (the day, not the order).

Class A South · Boys9 of 17 teams to StatesEvery runner →

Finish#	Team	Went	We had	Pts	Our pts	Win chance est.	To States est.
1	Portland	Yes	1	47	33	70%	>99%
2	Thornton Academy	Yes	2	64	94	8%	>99%
3	Bonny Eagle3 places better than we had	Yes	6	117	149	2%	>99%
4	Scarborough1 place better than we had	Yes	5	129	125	3%	>99%
5	Gorham	Yes	4	130	113	6%	>99%
6	Falmouth	Yes	3	132	98	10%	>99%
7	Sanford	Yes	7	183	185	<1%	97%
8	South Portland	Yes	8	244	256	<1%	78%
9	Massabesic	Yes	9	274	309	<1%	32%
↑ State meet line: the top 9 teams
10	Fryeburg Academy1 place better than we had	No	11	282	338	<1%	19%
11	Marshwood4 places better than we had	No	15	318	365	<1%	10%
12	Cheverus1 place better than we had	No	13	328	357	<1%	6%
13	Kennebunk	No	10	352	326	<1%	32%
14	Noble2 places better than we had	No	16	413	418	<1%	3%
15	Deering	No	12	418	344	<1%	19%
16	Windham	No	14	448	359	<1%	4%
17	Biddeford	No	17	459	466	<1%	<1%

Our projected winner won. 6 of 17 teams finished exactly where we had them, 10 within one place. State-meet calls: 9 of 9 right. The race ran 13 seconds slower than our projected times (the day, not the order).

Class B North · Boys7 of 14 teams to StatesEvery runner →

Finish#	Team	Went	We had	Pts	Our pts	Win chance est.	To States est.
1	Caribou	Yes	1	61	58	83%	>99%
2	John Bapst1 place better than we had	Yes	3	83	106	8%	>99%
3	Presque Isle	Yes	2	83	92	9%	>99%
4	Mt. Desert Island3 places better than we had	Yes	7	148	189	<1%	53%
5	Erskine Academy	Yes	4	169	163	<1%	84%
6	Medomak Valley2 places better than we had	Yeswe had out	8	180	196	<1%	43%
7	Gardiner	Yes	5	187	171	<1%	75%
↑ State meet line: the top 7 teams
8	Nokomis2 places better than we had	No	10	198	209	<1%	28%
9	Cony	Nowe had in	6	201	185	<1%	62%
10	Waterville	No	9	223	201	<1%	43%
11	Hermon	No	11	251	223	<1%	14%
12	Foxcroft Academy	No	12	269	266	<1%	<1%
13	Oceanside	No	13	277	288	<1%	<1%
14	Belfast	No	14	362	384	<1%	<1%

Our projected winner won. 5 of 14 teams finished exactly where we had them, 9 within one place. State-meet calls: 6 of 7 right. The race ran 3 seconds faster than our projected times (the day, not the order).

Class B South · Boys6 of 11 teams to StatesEvery runner →

Finish#	Team	Went	We had	Pts	Our pts	Win chance est.	To States est.
1	Yarmouth	Yes	1	23	19	92%	>99%
2	Freeport	Yes	2	78	72	6%	>99%
3	Cape Elizabeth	Yes	3	92	106	<1%	97%
4	Greely1 place better than we had	Yes	5	150	120	<1%	94%
5	Lake Region4 places better than we had	Yeswe had out	9	158	207	<1%	20%
6	York	Yes	4	160	115	<1%	96%
↑ State meet line: the top 6 teams
7	Wells	No	7	164	204	<1%	28%
8	Gray-New Gloucester	No	8	174	207	<1%	20%
9	Poland	Nowe had in	6	190	201	<1%	24%
10	Lincoln Academy	No	10	227	228	<1%	21%
11	Morse	No	11	263	275	<1%	<1%

Our projected winner won. 7 of 11 teams finished exactly where we had them, 8 within one place. State-meet calls: 5 of 6 right. The race ran 3 seconds slower than our projected times (the day, not the order).

Class C North · Boys6 of 11 teams to StatesEvery runner →

Finish#	Team	Went	We had	Pts	Our pts	Win chance est.	To States est.
1	Houlton/GHCA	Yes	1	30	24	93%	>99%
2	George Stevens Academy	Yes	2	47	59	6%	>99%
3	Orono	Yes	3	67	66	1%	>99%
4	Bucksport1 place better than we had	Yes	5	128	146	<1%	>99%
5	Washington Academy	Yes	4	138	138	<1%	98%
6	MCI1 place better than we had	Yeswe had out	7	162	184	<1%	39%
↑ State meet line: the top 6 teams
7	Sumner	Nowe had in	6	165	182	<1%	47%
8	Calais	No	8	187	196	<1%	13%
9	Dexter1 place better than we had	No	10	224	262	<1%	<1%
10	Central1 place better than we had	No	11	266	278	<1%	<1%
–	MSSMfewer than five finishers, no team score	No	9	–	251	<1%	3%

Our projected winner won. 4 of 10 teams finished exactly where we had them, 10 within one place. State-meet calls: 5 of 6 right. The race ran 8 seconds slower than our projected times (the day, not the order).

Class C South · Boys7 of 14 teams to StatesEvery runner →

Finish#	Team	Went	We had	Pts	Our pts	Win chance est.	To States est.
1	Winthrop	Yes	1	44	37	96%	>99%
2	Maranacook	Yes	2	106	106	3%	>99%
3	Carrabec	Yes	3	124	118	<1%	98%
4	Waynflete3 places better than we had	Yes	7	135	158	<1%	84%
5	Dirigo	Yes	5	147	146	<1%	95%
6	Madison2 places better than we had	Yeswe had out	8	156	199	<1%	26%
7	Boothbay/Wiscasset	Yes	6	157	157	<1%	79%
↑ State meet line: the top 7 teams
8	Maine Coast Waldorf1 place better than we had	No	9	190	212	<1%	18%
9	NYA	Nowe had in	4	193	141	<1%	96%
10	Valley	No	10	208	213	<1%	4%
11	Lisbon1 place better than we had	No	12	276	333	<1%	<1%
12	Traip Academy	No	11	284	293	<1%	<1%
–	Hall-Dalefewer than five finishers, no team score	No	13	–	350	<1%	<1%
–	Monmouth Academyfewer than five finishers, no team score	No	14	–	404	<1%	<1%

Our projected winner won. 5 of 12 teams finished exactly where we had them, 9 within one place. State-meet calls: 6 of 7 right. The race ran 4 seconds slower than our projected times (the day, not the order).

How this was graded: the projection was frozen before the first race (Fri 10-23 23:30:45 ET (frozen.json sha e579c02b)) and compared with the results. Team scores use the official MPA team scores. "We had" = our projected team place; "To States" = our chance the team would finish in the top half and go on to the state meet. The MPA's official list decides who qualifies. Runner by runner: tap "Every runner" on any race (runners appear as numbers inside their team). We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.