We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

Maine high school cross country · 2026 · State meet, graded

State meet: how we did

Before the races we projected every team and runner in all six State races at Cony. The projection was frozen Fri Oct 30, 11:30 PM, before the first race, and never changed. Here's every team, what we said and what happened.

Sat Oct 316 races73 teams scoredThe projection Regionals, graded

Team winners4 of 6our projected #1 team won the race (all six races)

Podium calls16 of 19teams we gave a better-than-even top-3 chance finished top 3

Within one place56 of 73teams within one place of where we had them

Individual winners4 of 6our projected individual winner won (all six races)

Class A · GirlsHampden Academy won (60 points)Every runner →

Finish#	Team	Pts	We had	Our range	Our pts	Win chance est.	Top 3 est.
1	Hampden Academy	60	3	1–4	89	21%	73%
2	Falmouth	78	1	1–4	75	34%	87%
3	Portland	88	2	1–4	88	35%	84%
4	Thornton Academy	119	4	2–5	95	9%	46%
5	Camden Hills	143	7	5–8	179	<1%	2%
6	Massabesic	143	5	4–8	144	<1%	6%
7	Cheverus	168	6	5–8	167	<1%	2%
8	Marshwood	206	8	7–11	214	<1%	<1%
9	Fryeburg Academy	227	9	7–11	219	<1%	<1%
10	Mt. Ararat	238	10	8–12	240	<1%	<1%
11	Scarborough	291	11	8–12	271	<1%	<1%
12	Brunswick	304	12	10–13	276	<1%	<1%
13	Bangor	305	13	11–13	304	<1%	<1%

Our #1 team: Falmouth (est. 34% to win), finished #2. 13 of 13 teams finished inside the place range we gave (built for 8 in 10). Runners: 5 of 6 we gave a better-than-even top-10 chance made the top 10; 85 of 90 finished inside their range. The race ran 3 seconds faster than our projected times (the day, not the order).

Class B · GirlsFreeport won (67 points)Every runner →

Finish#	Team	Pts	We had	Our range	Our pts	Win chance est.	Top 3 est.
1	Freeport	67	1	1–4	84	31%	79%
2	Mt. Desert Island	81	4	1–5	101	12%	55%
3	Yarmouth	87	2	1–4	86	32%	80%
4	Cape Elizabeth	109	3	1–5	101	23%	70%
5	Caribou	135	6	5–8	162	<1%	<1%
6	Presque Isle	144	5	3–6	127	2%	14%
7	York	162	9	7–11	215	<1%	<1%
8	Lincoln Academy	184	7	5–8	167	<1%	1%
9	John Bapst	193	8	7–11	207	<1%	<1%
10	Greely	221	11	8–11	233	<1%	<1%
–	Watervillefewer than five finishers, no team score	–	10	7–11	217	<1%	<1%

Our #1 team: Freeport (est. 31% to win), won. 10 of 11 teams finished inside the place range we gave (built for 8 in 10). Runners: 5 of 6 we gave a better-than-even top-10 chance made the top 10; 77 of 85 finished inside their range. The race ran 6 seconds faster than our projected times (the day, not the order).

Class C · GirlsMaine Coast Waldorf won (58 points)Every runner →

Finish#	Team	Pts	We had	Our range	Our pts	Win chance est.	Top 3 est.
1	Maine Coast Waldorf	58	1	1–2	69	79%	99%
2	NYAbetter than the best place we gave	85	5	3–7	125	<1%	16%
3	George Stevens Academy	103	2	1–4	90	17%	87%
4	Maranacook	112	4	2–6	122	1%	35%
5	Orono	130	3	2–6	113	2%	51%
6	Boothbay/Wiscasset	134	6	3–7	136	<1%	12%
7	Winthrop	140	7	6–9	157	<1%	<1%
8	Waynflete	149	9	6–10	167	<1%	<1%
9	Calais	167	8	7–10	164	<1%	<1%
–	Narraguagusfewer than five finishers, no team score	–	10	7–10	178	<1%	<1%

Our #1 team: Maine Coast Waldorf (est. 79% to win), won. 8 of 10 teams finished inside the place range we gave (built for 8 in 10). Runners: 5 of 7 we gave a better-than-even top-10 chance made the top 10; 62 of 74 finished inside their range. The race ran 7 seconds faster than our projected times (the day, not the order).

How this was graded: the projection was frozen before the first race (Fri Oct 30, 11:30 PM) and compared with the official results. Team scores are the official MPA team scores (only qualified teams score; individual qualifiers don't). "We had" = our projected team place; "Our range" = where we expected the team in 8 of 10 simulated races; win and top-3 chances are the ones we showed before the race. Runner by runner: tap "Every runner" on any race (runners appear as numbers inside their team). We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.