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We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

← State meet, graded · Class A · Girls

Class A Girls: team by team, runner by runner

Every team and every finisher, next to what we showed before the race (frozen Fri Oct 30, 11:30 PM, never changed): projected place and the range we gave, projected time, and where they really finished.

Missedour projected team winner, Falmouth (est. 34% to win); Hampden Academy won
3 of 3teams we gave a better-than-even top-3 chance finished top 3
5 of 6runners we gave a better-than-even chance of the top 10 made it
Missedour projected individual winner
Teams13 scored
Finish#TeamPtsWe hadOur rangeOur ptsWin chance est.Top 3 est.
1 Hampden Academy 603 1–489 21%73%
2 Falmouth 781 1–475 34%87%
3 Portland 882 1–488 35%84%
4 Thornton Academy 1194 2–595 9%46%
5 Camden Hills 1437 5–8179 <1%2%
6 Massabesic 1435 4–8144 <1%6%
7 Cheverus 1686 5–8167 <1%2%
8 Marshwood 2068 7–11214 <1%<1%
9 Fryeburg Academy 2279 7–11219 <1%<1%
10 Mt. Ararat 23810 8–12240 <1%<1%
11 Scarborough 29111 8–12271 <1%<1%
12 Brunswick 30412 10–13276 <1%<1%
13 Bangor 30513 11–13304 <1%<1%

13 of 13 teams finished inside the place range we gave (built for 8 in 10); 11 within one place of where we had them. Official MPA team scores: only qualified teams score.

Every finisher · by school and number97 ran

Runners are shown by school and number: runner 1 is that school's first finisher in this race. We don't show names (coach accounts only); places and times are the same for everyone.

Place#RunnerTimeWe hadOur rangeOur time
1 Portland · runner 1 18:01 2 1–9 19:17
2 Falmouth · runner 1 18:05 1 1–6 18:53
3 Hampden Academy · runner 1 18:33 3 1–10 19:28
4 Cheverus · runner 1 18:43 4 1–13 19:40
5 Falmouth · runner 2 20:11 5 3–23 20:22
6 Massabesic · runner 1Beat our range 20:25 19 7–42 21:23
7 Camden Hills · runner 1 20:29 8 5–30 20:49
8 Falmouth · runner 3 20:31 7 4–27 20:38
9 Thornton Academy · runner 1Beat our range 20:33 27 13–53 21:58
10 Hampden Academy · runner 2 20:34 21 9–43 21:28
11 Mt. Ararat · runner 1 20:36 14 6–37 21:11
12 Hampden Academy · runner 3 20:50 20 8–42 21:26
13 Portland · runner 2 20:55 6 4–26 20:34
14 Massabesic · runner 2 20:59 9 5–33 20:56
15 Mt. Ararat · runner 2 20:59 25 10–48 21:44
16 Thornton Academy · runner 2 21:03 11 6–36 21:06
17 Hampden Academy · runner 4not in our projection 21:04 –
18 Hampden Academy · runner 5 21:11 24 10–46 21:37
19 Camden Hills · runner 2not in our projection 21:16 –
20 Fryeburg Academy · runner 1 21:17 12 6–36 21:07
21 South Portland · runner 1individual qualifier 21:17 18 8–40 21:21
22 Thornton Academy · runner 3 21:18 16 7–40 21:18
23 Marshwood · runner 1 21:23 26 12–51 21:51
24 Portland · runner 3 21:31 34 15–55 22:07
25 Hampden Academy · runner 6 21:33 29 14–53 22:01
26 Portland · runner 4 21:37 17 7–41 21:19
27 Kennebunk · runner 1individual qualifier 21:39 15 6–37 21:12
28 Portland · runner 5 21:39 36 16–57 22:12
29 Falmouth · runner 4 21:41 28 14–54 22:01
30 Cheverus · runner 2 21:44 22 8–43 21:28
31 Cheverus · runner 3 21:50 43 24–64 22:40
32 Marshwood · runner 2 21:56 23 9–44 21:33
33 Massabesic · runner 3 22:09 35 16–57 22:11
34 Camden Hills · runner 3 22:13 32 14–55 22:06
35 Deering · runner 1individual qualifier 22:21 33 15–55 22:06
36 Oxford Hills · runner 1individual qualifier 22:22 53 29–69 22:59
37 Hampden Academy · runner 7 22:22 46 24–65 22:44
38 Thornton Academy · runner 4 22:23 37 19–59 22:19
39 Marshwood · runner 3 22:24 48 26–66 22:51
40 Falmouth · runner 5 22:25 58 34–73 23:15
41 Bangor · runner 1 22:28 30 14–53 22:02
42 Massabesic · runner 4 22:29 31 15–54 22:05
43 Thornton Academy · runner 5 22:30 10 5–34 20:59
44 Portland · runner 6 22:38 40 20–62 22:31
45 Fryeburg Academy · runner 2 22:39 42 22–63 22:36
46 Camden Hills · runner 4 22:39 51 29–69 22:57
47 Camden Hills · runner 5 22:41 56 32–70 23:07
48 Cheverus · runner 4 22:47 44 23–65 22:42
49 Scarborough · runner 1 22:58 52 29–69 22:58
50 Fryeburg Academy · runner 3 23:03 57 33–71 23:11
51 Scarborough · runner 2 23:04 54 29–69 23:01
52 Brunswick · runner 1not in our projection 23:05 –
53 Falmouth · runner 6 23:05 39 19–61 22:26
54 Brunswick · runner 2 23:05 62 35–76 23:27
55 Camden Hills · runner 6 23:06 45 24–65 22:43
56 Camden Hills · runner 7 23:12 55 31–70 23:06
57 Marshwood · runner 4 23:14 64 40–77 23:34
58 Massabesic · runner 5 23:15 61 37–75 23:27
59 Fryeburg Academy · runner 4 23:15 49 26–67 22:51
60 Thornton Academy · runner 6 23:26 41 22–63 22:34
61 Scarborough · runner 3 23:36 60 23–81 23:25
62 Portland · runner 7 23:37 38 18–60 22:23
63 Scarborough · runner 4 23:43 66 42–77 23:39
64 Massabesic · runner 6not in our projection 23:44 –
65 Mt. Blue · runner 1individual qualifier 23:49 72 55–84 24:20
66 Bangor · runner 2 23:50 78 60–86 24:39
67 Bangor · runner 3 23:53 65 40–76 23:36
68 Cheverus · runner 5 23:58 69 48–81 24:00
69 Oxford Hills · runner 2individual qualifier 23:59 67 47–80 23:55
70 Brunswick · runner 3 24:04 74 55–84 24:22
71 Fryeburg Academy · runner 5 24:11 77 60–86 24:38
72 Marshwood · runner 5 24:12 73 55–83 24:21
73 Mt. Ararat · runner 3 24:21 70 52–83 24:16
74 Mt. Ararat · runner 4 24:26 71 55–83 24:18
75 Bangor · runner 4 24:28 80 61–87 24:44
76 Brunswick · runner 4not in our projection 24:30 –
77 Thornton Academy · runner 7 24:37 82 65–88 24:58
78 Brunswick · runner 5 24:45 84 70–90 25:19
79 Falmouth · runner 7not in our projection 24:46 –
80 Brunswick · runner 6 24:51 76 58–86 24:36
81 Brunswick · runner 7 24:56 79 60–86 24:40
82 Messalonskee · runner 1individual qualifier 25:02 68 47–80 23:58
83 Bangor · runner 5 25:11 83 66–89 25:05
84 Mt. Ararat · runner 5 25:54 91 82–95 26:27
85 Massabesic · runner 7 25:55 88 77–93 25:55
86 Marshwood · runner 6not in our projection 25:58 –
87 Mt. Ararat · runner 6 26:09 86 75–92 25:42
88 Mt. Ararat · runner 7 26:14 85 72–91 25:29
89 Cheverus · runner 6 26:29 93 85–95 26:46
90 Scarborough · runner 5 26:33 90 80–94 26:15
91 Cheverus · runner 7 26:46 92 83–95 26:35
92 Marshwood · runner 7 26:47 89 80–94 26:14
93 Fryeburg Academy · runner 6 27:08 95 90–97 27:36
94 Bangor · runner 6 27:21 97 94–98 28:32
95 Scarborough · runner 6 27:43 94 88–97 27:17
96 Bangor · runner 7 27:54 98 95–98 28:42
97 Fryeburg Academy · runner 7 28:00 96 90–97 27:37

"We had" = the place we projected Friday night, among the runners we projected (some of them didn't start: 8 here; 7 finishers weren't in our projection, mostly late entries). "Our range" = where we expected the runner in 8 of 10 simulated races: 85 of 90 finished inside it. "Beat our range" = finished better than the best place we gave. The race ran 3 seconds faster than our projected times; typical runner miss after that 22 seconds. We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete; projections are data only and can be wrong.