We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

Maine high school cross country · 2026 · State meet, graded

State meet: how we did

Before the races we projected every team and runner in all six State races at Cony. The projection was frozen Fri Oct 30, 11:30 PM, before the first race, and never changed. Here's every team, what we said and what happened.

Sat Oct 316 races73 teams scoredThe projection Regionals, graded

Team winners4 of 6our projected #1 team won the race (all six races)

Podium calls16 of 19teams we gave a better-than-even top-3 chance finished top 3

Within one place56 of 73teams within one place of where we had them

Individual winners4 of 6our projected individual winner won (all six races)

Class A · BoysThornton Academy won (79 points)Every runner →

Finish#	Team	Pts	We had	Our range	Our pts	Win chance est.	Top 3 est.
1	Thornton Academybetter than the best place we gave	79	2	2–7	114	5%	54%
2	Portland	80	1	1–2	40	87%	98%
3	Scarborough	114	8	3–10	188	<1%	11%
4	Gorham	129	4	3–10	174	<1%	15%
5	Bonny Eagle	146	5	3–10	179	1%	19%
6	Hampden Academy	160	6	3–10	181	1%	19%
7	Camden Hills	194	10	4–11	215	<1%	7%
8	Mt. Blue	195	7	3–10	183	<1%	13%
9	Falmouth	222	3	2–7	135	5%	54%
10	Messalonskee	231	9	4–11	191	<1%	7%
11	Sanford	250	11	7–12	244	<1%	<1%
12	Oxford Hills	308	12	9–14	277	<1%	<1%
13	South Portland	331	13	11–15	318	<1%	<1%
14	Brunswick	357	15	12–15	366	<1%	<1%
15	Massabesic	363	14	13–15	348	<1%	<1%

Our #1 team: Portland (est. 87% to win), finished #2. 13 of 15 teams finished inside the place range we gave (built for 8 in 10). Runners: 4 of 4 we gave a better-than-even top-10 chance made the top 10; 97 of 108 finished inside their range. The race ran 13 seconds faster than our projected times (the day, not the order).

Class B · BoysYarmouth won (27 points)Every runner →

Finish#	Team	Pts	We had	Our range	Our pts	Win chance est.	Top 3 est.
1	Yarmouth	27	1	1–1	26	99%	>99%
2	Freeport	92	2	2–4	85	1%	86%
3	Caribou	121	3	2–5	115	<1%	53%
4	Cape Elizabeth	122	4	2–6	122	<1%	32%
5	York	130	6	4–8	165	<1%	4%
6	Greely	185	5	3–6	134	<1%	23%
7	Lake Region	199	9	7–11	240	<1%	<1%
8	John Bapst	208	8	6–9	211	<1%	<1%
9	Presque Isle	225	7	5–9	192	<1%	1%
10	Mt. Desert Island	255	12	10–13	281	<1%	<1%
11	Medomak Valley	255	13	10–13	285	<1%	<1%
12	Erskine Academy	289	10	9–12	254	<1%	<1%
13	Gardiner	302	11	9–13	261	<1%	<1%

Our #1 team: Yarmouth (est. 99% to win), won. 13 of 13 teams finished inside the place range we gave (built for 8 in 10). Runners: 7 of 7 we gave a better-than-even top-10 chance made the top 10; 84 of 94 finished inside their range. The race ran 9 seconds faster than our projected times (the day, not the order).

Class C · BoysWinthrop won (47 points)Every runner →

Finish#	Team	Pts	We had	Our range	Our pts	Win chance est.	Top 3 est.
1	Winthrop	47	1	1–2	54	77%	>99%
2	Houlton/GHCA	66	2	1–3	78	20%	97%
3	George Stevens Academy	105	3	2–5	109	2%	63%
4	Maranacook	127	4	3–6	130	<1%	28%
5	Dirigo	161	7	5–9	183	<1%	<1%
6	Carrabec	167	5	4–8	157	<1%	6%
7	Waynflete	174	8	6–10	186	<1%	<1%
8	Orono	180	6	4–7	164	<1%	5%
9	Boothbay/Wiscasset	193	9	7–11	213	<1%	<1%
10	Madison	209	11	9–12	231	<1%	<1%
11	Bucksport	262	10	9–11	223	<1%	<1%
12	Washington Academy	316	12	11–12	270	<1%	<1%
13	MCI	358	13	13–13	339	<1%	<1%

Our #1 team: Winthrop (est. 77% to win), won. 12 of 13 teams finished inside the place range we gave (built for 8 in 10). Runners: 6 of 8 we gave a better-than-even top-10 chance made the top 10; 82 of 95 finished inside their range. The race ran 6 seconds faster than our projected times (the day, not the order).

How this was graded: the projection was frozen before the first race (Fri Oct 30, 11:30 PM) and compared with the official results. Team scores are the official MPA team scores (only qualified teams score; individual qualifiers don't). "We had" = our projected team place; "Our range" = where we expected the team in 8 of 10 simulated races; win and top-3 chances are the ones we showed before the race. Runner by runner: tap "Every runner" on any race (runners appear as numbers inside their team). We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.