8-Man Small North standings
Stearns leads at 136.667 · top 4 of 5 make it · 4 teams clinched · through Sat 10/31 · MPA official table ↗
1STEStearns8-0136.667Clinched
2OROOrono3-4120.635Clinched
3WAAWashington Academy5-2111.051Clinched
4BUCBucksport3-4104.396Clinched
5DEXDexter2-573.669Out
8-Man Small North · 5 teams · Crabtree order · tags appear only when proven · tap a team for its numbers
· results through Sat Oct 31
8-Man Small North: the top 4 of 5 teams by Crabtree Index make the playoffs. The regular season is over and the seeds are final: #1 Stearns, #2 Orono, #3 Washington Academy and #4 Bucksport.
8-Man Small North playoff bracket · How the Crabtree Index works · All 11 divisions
Show where each team can finish
8-Man Small North
4 of 5 make itFull table →1 StearnsCrabtree 136.667 8-0 136.6678 counted · all in Projected #1 · avg. finish 1.0Most likely #1 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Sat 10/24vs Sacopee ValleyW 66-14
- Fri 10/16vs EllsworthW 42-0
- Fri 10/9at BucksportW 42-12
- Fri 10/2vs Washington AcademyW 40-14
- Fri 9/25at Lake RegionW 32-28
- Fri 9/18vs OronoW 40-20
- Sat 9/12at HoultonW 56-0
- Fri 9/4at DexterW 42-8
Regular season done.
Where Stearns can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #1 = its average finish (1.0). Most likely #1 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #1 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
2 OronoCrabtree 120.635 3-4 120.6357 counted · all in Projected #2 · avg. finish 2.0Most likely #2 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/16at YarmouthL 14-78
- Fri 10/9at DexterW 50-12
- Fri 10/2vs Spruce MountainW 36-34
- Fri 9/25vs BucksportW 67-28
- Fri 9/18at StearnsL 20-40
- Fri 9/11at OOBL 22-30
- Thu 9/3vs Old TownL 6-48
Regular season done.
Where Orono can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #2 = its average finish (2.0). Most likely #2 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #2 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
3 Washington AcademyCrabtree 111.051 5-2 111.0517 counted · all in Projected #3 · avg. finish 3.0Most likely #3 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Sat 10/24at WatervilleW 52-16
- Fri 10/16vs BucksportW 20-14
- Fri 10/2at StearnsL 14-40
- Sat 9/26vs Gray-NGL 26-37
- Sat 9/19at TraipW 66-6
- Fri 9/11at DexterW 62-14
- Fri 9/4vs HoultonW 36-14
Regular season done.
Where Washington Academy can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #3 = its average finish (3.0). Most likely #3 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #3 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
4 BucksportCrabtree 104.396 3-4 104.3967 counted · all in Projected #4 · avg. finish 4.0Most likely #4 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23vs DexterW 62-40
- Fri 10/16at Washington AcademyL 14-20
- Fri 10/9vs StearnsL 12-42
- Fri 9/25at OronoL 28-67
- Fri 9/18vs MDIW 36-24
- Fri 9/11vs BoothbayW 26-0
- Fri 9/4at EllsworthL 26-52
Regular season done.
Where Bucksport can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #4 = its average finish (4.0). Most likely #4 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #4 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
5 DexterCrabtree 73.669 2-5 73.6697 counted · all in Projected #5 · avg. finish 5.0Most likely #5 (>99%) ELIMINATED
- Fri 10/23at BucksportL 40-62
- Fri 10/9vs OronoL 12-50
- Sat 10/3at Mount ViewW 36-6
- Fri 9/25vs HoultonW 20-13
- Fri 9/18at MaranacookL 16-54
- Fri 9/11vs Washington AcademyL 14-62
- Fri 9/4vs StearnsL 8-42
Regular season done.
Where Dexter can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #5 = its average finish (5.0). Most likely #5 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #5 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
Why?
Projected: each team gets its own spot, in order of its average finish across the simulated seasons (avg. finish). Most likely: the single spot it finished in most often. Tap a team for the % at every spot. Estimates, and they can be wrong.
8-Man Small North
4 of 5 make itFull table →1 Stearns 8-0 Likely #1 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Stearns can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
2 Orono 3-4 Likely #2 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Orono can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
3 Washington Academy 5-2 Likely #3 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Washington Academy can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
4 Bucksport 3-4 Likely #4 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Bucksport can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
5 Dexter 2-5 Likely #5 · >99% ELIMINATED
Where Dexter can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
End of week 10: every place each team can hold once this week's games are final.
Why?
Each cell is how often the team finished in that place in 1,500 played-out seasons: an estimate. Empty cells can't be reached, proven by checking every combination of the remaining results. The outlined cell is where the team stands now. TB: same Crabtree number as another team, placed by the tiebreak order (head-to-head, division record, overall record, Heal points).
We add results as soon as we have them. The MPA updates its official table on its own schedule, so ours can be a step ahead for a day or two. 4 teams qualify (as labelled by the MPA).
Stearns leads 8-Man Small North at 136.667 after games through Oct 30. The top 4 of 5 teams make the playoffs. Stearns, Orono, Washington Academy and Bucksport are mathematically in.
All 11 divisions: the Maine football playoff picture · What if?
What's the Crabtree Index? Crabtree points explained
The Crabtree Index is how Maine seeds high school football. It adds a team's own winning percentage to its opponents' combined winning percentage and multiplies by 100. A higher index means a better seed.
Worked example (a made-up team):
- Team A is 3-1, so its winning percentage is .750.
- Its opponents have won 7 of their 16 games combined, so their winning percentage is .4375.
- Crabtree Index = (.750 + .4375) × 100 = 118.750.
Three things that surprise people
- Your index can move when you don't play. Your opponents' results count, so their wins and losses change your number every week.
- Opponents' records are pooled, not averaged. We add up all their wins over all their games, the way the MPA does.
- Out-of-state and non-classified opponents count in your own record but as 0-0 in the opponents' pool.
Only completed games count. Heal points don't decide football seeds; they're only the fourth tiebreaker, after head-to-head, division record and overall record.
How the Crabtree Index works, step by step · See every division's standings live · Official standings are kept by the Maine Principals' Association.
Quick answers
Who leads 8-Man Small North football?
Stearns, at 136.667 on the Crabtree Index, after games through Oct 30.
How many 8-Man Small North teams make the playoffs?
The top 4 of 5, as labeled by the MPA.
Has anyone clinched a 8-Man Small North playoff spot?
Yes: Stearns, Orono, Washington Academy and Bucksport are mathematically in. We say a team is in only when every possible result of the games left keeps it in the top 4.