Dexter football 2026
8-Man Small North
Where Dexter and its rivals finish
8-Man Small North
4 of 5 make itFull table →1 StearnsCrabtree 136.667 8-0 136.6678 counted · all in Projected #1 · avg. finish 1.0Most likely #1 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Sat 10/24vs Sacopee ValleyW 66-14
- Fri 10/16vs EllsworthW 42-0
- Fri 10/9at BucksportW 42-12
- Fri 10/2vs Washington AcademyW 40-14
- Fri 9/25at Lake RegionW 32-28
- Fri 9/18vs OronoW 40-20
- Sat 9/12at HoultonW 56-0
- Fri 9/4at DexterW 42-8
Regular season done.
Where Stearns can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #1 = its average finish (1.0). Most likely #1 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #1 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
2 OronoCrabtree 120.635 3-4 120.6357 counted · all in Projected #2 · avg. finish 2.0Most likely #2 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/16at YarmouthL 14-78
- Fri 10/9at DexterW 50-12
- Fri 10/2vs Spruce MountainW 36-34
- Fri 9/25vs BucksportW 67-28
- Fri 9/18at StearnsL 20-40
- Fri 9/11at OOBL 22-30
- Thu 9/3vs Old TownL 6-48
Regular season done.
Where Orono can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #2 = its average finish (2.0). Most likely #2 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #2 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
3 Washington AcademyCrabtree 111.051 5-2 111.0517 counted · all in Projected #3 · avg. finish 3.0Most likely #3 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Sat 10/24at WatervilleW 52-16
- Fri 10/16vs BucksportW 20-14
- Fri 10/2at StearnsL 14-40
- Sat 9/26vs Gray-NGL 26-37
- Sat 9/19at TraipW 66-6
- Fri 9/11at DexterW 62-14
- Fri 9/4vs HoultonW 36-14
Regular season done.
Where Washington Academy can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #3 = its average finish (3.0). Most likely #3 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #3 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
4 BucksportCrabtree 104.396 3-4 104.3967 counted · all in Projected #4 · avg. finish 4.0Most likely #4 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23vs DexterW 62-40
- Fri 10/16at Washington AcademyL 14-20
- Fri 10/9vs StearnsL 12-42
- Fri 9/25at OronoL 28-67
- Fri 9/18vs MDIW 36-24
- Fri 9/11vs BoothbayW 26-0
- Fri 9/4at EllsworthL 26-52
Regular season done.
Where Bucksport can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #4 = its average finish (4.0). Most likely #4 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #4 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
5 DexterCrabtree 73.669 2-5 73.6697 counted · all in Projected #5 · avg. finish 5.0Most likely #5 (>99%) ELIMINATED
- Fri 10/23at BucksportL 40-62
- Fri 10/9vs OronoL 12-50
- Sat 10/3at Mount ViewW 36-6
- Fri 9/25vs HoultonW 20-13
- Fri 9/18at MaranacookL 16-54
- Fri 9/11vs Washington AcademyL 14-62
- Fri 9/4vs StearnsL 8-42
Regular season done.
Where Dexter can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #5 = its average finish (5.0). Most likely #5 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #5 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
Why?
Projected: each team gets its own spot, in order of its average finish across the simulated seasons (avg. finish). Most likely: the single spot it finished in most often. Tap a team for the % at every spot. Estimates, and they can be wrong.
8-Man Small North
4 of 5 make itFull table →1 Stearns 8-0 Likely #1 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Stearns can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
2 Orono 3-4 Likely #2 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Orono can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
3 Washington Academy 5-2 Likely #3 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Washington Academy can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
4 Bucksport 3-4 Likely #4 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Bucksport can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
5 Dexter 2-5 Likely #5 · >99% ELIMINATED
Where Dexter can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
Why?
Each cell is how often the team finished in that place in 1,500 played-out seasons: an estimate. Empty cells can't be reached, proven by checking every combination of the remaining results. The outlined cell is where each team stands now.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Small North, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Dexter can no longer reach the top 4. Every result still counts toward other teams' Crabtree numbers.
Why?
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. The highest and lowest places are exact: some combination of results reaches each of them, and none goes past them. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
How this is figured Crabtree step by step · tiebreakers · power rating
Crabtree index today: 73.669 (the MPA's playoff number, recomputed).
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Stearns | 8-0 | yes |
| Washington Academy | 5-2 | yes |
| Maranacook | 3-4 | yes |
| Houlton | 1-7 | yes |
| Mount View | 0-7 | yes |
| Orono | 3-4 | yes |
| Bucksport | 3-4 | yes |
Own win% = 2 / 7 = 0.2857
Opponents pooled = 23 wins / 51 games = 0.4510
Crabtree = (0.2857 + 0.4510) × 100 = 73.669
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 9.143, tournament index 7.1429 over 7 scheduled games.
Our power rating
Rated #20 of Maine's 23 8-man teams, est. 16.1 points below an average team.
-16.1 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -26.2 to -6.1) · rank #20 among 8-man teams · est. <1% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Small North, est. <1% in all of 8-man
7 games of evidence; 12% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8S team); from Week 7 on last season doesn't count at all. A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
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Quick answers
Can Dexter still make the playoffs?
No. Dexter is eliminated: no combination of the games left puts it in the 8-Man Small North top 4.
When is Dexter's next game?
Dexter's regular season is over (2-5). Playoff dates and sites come from the MPA; our bracket page adds them as they're posted.
More Dexter: Basketball · All Dexter sports