8-Man Large South standings
Yarmouth leads at 150.000 · top 4 of 6 make it · 4 teams clinched · through Sat 10/31 · MPA official table ↗
1YARYarmouth8-0150.000Clinched
2SPRSpruce Mountain6-2116.935Clinched
3CAPCape Elizabeth6-2116.935Clinched
4GNGGray-NG5-2114.021Clinched
5LAKLake Region2-690.079Out
6MTAMt. Ararat0-871.429Out
8-Man Large South · 6 teams · Crabtree order · tags appear only when proven · tap a team for its numbers
· results through Sat Oct 31
8-Man Large South: the top 4 of 6 teams by Crabtree Index make the playoffs. The regular season is over and the seeds are final: #1 Yarmouth, #2 Spruce Mountain, #3 Cape Elizabeth and #4 Gray-New Gloucester.
8-Man Large South playoff bracket · How the Crabtree Index works · All 11 divisions
Show where each team can finish
8-Man Large South
4 of 6 make itFull table →1 YarmouthCrabtree 150.000 8-0 150.0008 counted · all in Projected #1 · avg. finish 1.0Most likely #1 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23vs Gray-NGW 68-0
- Fri 10/16vs OronoW 78-14
- Fri 10/9at Mt. AraratW 60-0
- Sat 10/3at MDIW 60-0
- Fri 9/25vs EllsworthW 60-8
- Sat 9/19vs Cape ElizabethW 82-40
- Sat 9/12at Spruce MountainW 48-0
- Fri 9/4at Lake RegionW 44-6
Regular season done.
Where Yarmouth can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #1 = its average finish (1.0). Most likely #1 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #1 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
2 Spruce MountainTBCrabtree 116.935 6-2 116.9358 counted · all in Projected #2 · avg. finish 2.0Most likely #2 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Sat 10/24at MaranacookW 60-6
- Fri 10/16vs TraipW 60-0
- Fri 10/9vs Cape ElizabethW 40-28
- Fri 10/2at OronoL 34-36
- Fri 9/25at Mt. AraratW 36-0
- Fri 9/18vs Lake RegionW 46-14
- Sat 9/12vs YarmouthL 0-48
- Sat 9/5at TelstarW 30-18
Regular season done.
Where Spruce Mountain can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #2 = its average finish (2.0). Most likely #2 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #2 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
3 Cape ElizabethTBCrabtree 116.935 6-2 116.9358 counted · all in Projected #3 · avg. finish 3.0Most likely #3 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Sat 10/24vs HoultonW 42-6
- Fri 10/16vs Lake RegionW 18-8
- Fri 10/9at Spruce MountainL 28-40
- Fri 10/2at WatervilleW 50-16
- Fri 9/25vs TelstarW 40-36
- Sat 9/19at YarmouthL 40-82
- Sat 9/12at Mount ViewW 66-14
- Fri 9/4vs Gray-NGW 42-20
Regular season done.
Where Cape Elizabeth can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #3 = its average finish (3.0). Most likely #3 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #3 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
4 Gray-NGCrabtree 114.021 5-2 114.0217 counted · all in Projected #4 · avg. finish 4.0Most likely #4 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23at YarmouthL 0-68
- Fri 10/16vs Mt. AraratW 25-6
- Fri 10/9vs Mount ViewW 62-0
- Sat 10/3vs Lake RegionW 26-16
- Sat 9/26at Washington AcademyW 37-26
- Fri 9/18at Sacopee ValleyW 44-6
- Fri 9/4at Cape ElizabethL 20-42
Regular season done.
Where Gray-NG can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #4 = its average finish (4.0). Most likely #4 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #4 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
5 Lake RegionCrabtree 90.079 2-6 90.0798 counted · all in Projected #5 · avg. finish 5.0Most likely #5 (>99%) ELIMINATED
- Sat 10/24at TraipW 58-20
- Fri 10/16at Cape ElizabethL 8-18
- Fri 10/9vs Old TownL 20-60
- Sat 10/3at Gray-NGL 16-26
- Fri 9/25vs StearnsL 28-32
- Fri 9/18at Spruce MountainL 14-46
- Fri 9/11vs Mt. AraratW 30-0
- Fri 9/4vs YarmouthL 6-44
Regular season done.
Where Lake Region can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #5 = its average finish (5.0). Most likely #5 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #5 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
6 Mt. AraratCrabtree 71.429 0-8 71.4298 counted · all in Projected #6 · avg. finish 6.0Most likely #6 (>99%) ELIMINATED
- Fri 10/23vs OOBL 20-22
- Fri 10/16at Gray-NGL 6-25
- Fri 10/9vs YarmouthL 0-60
- Fri 10/2at EllsworthL 22-42
- Fri 9/25vs Spruce MountainL 0-36
- Fri 9/18at Old TownL 8-46
- Fri 9/11at Lake RegionL 0-30
- Fri 9/4vs MDIL 7-25
Regular season done.
Where Mt. Ararat can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #6 = its average finish (6.0). Most likely #6 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #6 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
Why?
Projected: each team gets its own spot, in order of its average finish across the simulated seasons (avg. finish). Most likely: the single spot it finished in most often. Tap a team for the % at every spot. Estimates, and they can be wrong.
8-Man Large South
4 of 6 make itFull table →1 Yarmouth 8-0 Likely #1 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Yarmouth can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
2 Spruce MountainTB 6-2 Likely #2 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Spruce Mountain can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
3 Cape ElizabethTB 6-2 Likely #3 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Cape Elizabeth can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
4 Gray-NG 5-2 Likely #4 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Gray-NG can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
5 Lake Region 2-6 Likely #5 · >99% ELIMINATED
Where Lake Region can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
6 Mt. Ararat 0-8 Likely #6 · >99% ELIMINATED
Where Mt. Ararat can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
End of week 10: every place each team can hold once this week's games are final.
Why?
Each cell is how often the team finished in that place in 1,500 played-out seasons: an estimate. Empty cells can't be reached, proven by checking every combination of the remaining results. The outlined cell is where the team stands now. TB: same Crabtree number as another team, placed by the tiebreak order (head-to-head, division record, overall record, Heal points).
We add results as soon as we have them. The MPA updates its official table on its own schedule, so ours can be a step ahead for a day or two. 4 teams qualify (as labelled by the MPA).
Yarmouth leads 8-Man Large South at 150.000 after games through Oct 30. The top 4 of 6 teams make the playoffs. Yarmouth, Spruce Mountain, Cape Elizabeth and Gray-NG are mathematically in.
All 11 divisions: the Maine football playoff picture · What if?
What's the Crabtree Index? Crabtree points explained
The Crabtree Index is how Maine seeds high school football. It adds a team's own winning percentage to its opponents' combined winning percentage and multiplies by 100. A higher index means a better seed.
Worked example (a made-up team):
- Team A is 3-1, so its winning percentage is .750.
- Its opponents have won 7 of their 16 games combined, so their winning percentage is .4375.
- Crabtree Index = (.750 + .4375) × 100 = 118.750.
Three things that surprise people
- Your index can move when you don't play. Your opponents' results count, so their wins and losses change your number every week.
- Opponents' records are pooled, not averaged. We add up all their wins over all their games, the way the MPA does.
- Out-of-state and non-classified opponents count in your own record but as 0-0 in the opponents' pool.
Only completed games count. Heal points don't decide football seeds; they're only the fourth tiebreaker, after head-to-head, division record and overall record.
How the Crabtree Index works, step by step · See every division's standings live · Official standings are kept by the Maine Principals' Association.
Quick answers
Who leads 8-Man Large South football?
Yarmouth, at 150.000 on the Crabtree Index, after games through Oct 30.
How many 8-Man Large South teams make the playoffs?
The top 4 of 6, as labeled by the MPA.
Has anyone clinched a 8-Man Large South playoff spot?
Yes: Yarmouth, Spruce Mountain, Cape Elizabeth and Gray-NG are mathematically in. We say a team is in only when every possible result of the games left keeps it in the top 4.