Lake Region football 2026
8-Man Large South
Where Lake Region and its rivals finish
8-Man Large South
4 of 6 make itFull table →1 YarmouthCrabtree 150.000 8-0 150.0008 counted · all in Projected #1 · avg. finish 1.0Most likely #1 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23vs Gray-NGW 68-0
- Fri 10/16vs OronoW 78-14
- Fri 10/9at Mt. AraratW 60-0
- Sat 10/3at MDIW 60-0
- Fri 9/25vs EllsworthW 60-8
- Sat 9/19vs Cape ElizabethW 82-40
- Sat 9/12at Spruce MountainW 48-0
- Fri 9/4at Lake RegionW 44-6
Regular season done.
Where Yarmouth can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #1 = its average finish (1.0). Most likely #1 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #1 in almost every simulated season.
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2 Spruce MountainTBCrabtree 116.935 6-2 116.9358 counted · all in Projected #2 · avg. finish 2.0Most likely #2 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Sat 10/24at MaranacookW 60-6
- Fri 10/16vs TraipW 60-0
- Fri 10/9vs Cape ElizabethW 40-28
- Fri 10/2at OronoL 34-36
- Fri 9/25at Mt. AraratW 36-0
- Fri 9/18vs Lake RegionW 46-14
- Sat 9/12vs YarmouthL 0-48
- Sat 9/5at TelstarW 30-18
Regular season done.
Where Spruce Mountain can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #2 = its average finish (2.0). Most likely #2 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #2 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
3 Cape ElizabethTBCrabtree 116.935 6-2 116.9358 counted · all in Projected #3 · avg. finish 3.0Most likely #3 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Sat 10/24vs HoultonW 42-6
- Fri 10/16vs Lake RegionW 18-8
- Fri 10/9at Spruce MountainL 28-40
- Fri 10/2at WatervilleW 50-16
- Fri 9/25vs TelstarW 40-36
- Sat 9/19at YarmouthL 40-82
- Sat 9/12at Mount ViewW 66-14
- Fri 9/4vs Gray-NGW 42-20
Regular season done.
Where Cape Elizabeth can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #3 = its average finish (3.0). Most likely #3 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #3 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
4 Gray-NGCrabtree 114.021 5-2 114.0217 counted · all in Projected #4 · avg. finish 4.0Most likely #4 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23at YarmouthL 0-68
- Fri 10/16vs Mt. AraratW 25-6
- Fri 10/9vs Mount ViewW 62-0
- Sat 10/3vs Lake RegionW 26-16
- Sat 9/26at Washington AcademyW 37-26
- Fri 9/18at Sacopee ValleyW 44-6
- Fri 9/4at Cape ElizabethL 20-42
Regular season done.
Where Gray-NG can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #4 = its average finish (4.0). Most likely #4 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #4 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
5 Lake RegionCrabtree 90.079 2-6 90.0798 counted · all in Projected #5 · avg. finish 5.0Most likely #5 (>99%) ELIMINATED
- Sat 10/24at TraipW 58-20
- Fri 10/16at Cape ElizabethL 8-18
- Fri 10/9vs Old TownL 20-60
- Sat 10/3at Gray-NGL 16-26
- Fri 9/25vs StearnsL 28-32
- Fri 9/18at Spruce MountainL 14-46
- Fri 9/11vs Mt. AraratW 30-0
- Fri 9/4vs YarmouthL 6-44
Regular season done.
Where Lake Region can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #5 = its average finish (5.0). Most likely #5 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #5 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
6 Mt. AraratCrabtree 71.429 0-8 71.4298 counted · all in Projected #6 · avg. finish 6.0Most likely #6 (>99%) ELIMINATED
- Fri 10/23vs OOBL 20-22
- Fri 10/16at Gray-NGL 6-25
- Fri 10/9vs YarmouthL 0-60
- Fri 10/2at EllsworthL 22-42
- Fri 9/25vs Spruce MountainL 0-36
- Fri 9/18at Old TownL 8-46
- Fri 9/11at Lake RegionL 0-30
- Fri 9/4vs MDIL 7-25
Regular season done.
Where Mt. Ararat can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #6 = its average finish (6.0). Most likely #6 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #6 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
Why?
Projected: each team gets its own spot, in order of its average finish across the simulated seasons (avg. finish). Most likely: the single spot it finished in most often. Tap a team for the % at every spot. Estimates, and they can be wrong.
8-Man Large South
4 of 6 make itFull table →1 Yarmouth 8-0 Likely #1 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Yarmouth can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
2 Spruce MountainTB 6-2 Likely #2 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Spruce Mountain can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
3 Cape ElizabethTB 6-2 Likely #3 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Cape Elizabeth can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
4 Gray-NG 5-2 Likely #4 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Gray-NG can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
5 Lake Region 2-6 Likely #5 · >99% ELIMINATED
Where Lake Region can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
6 Mt. Ararat 0-8 Likely #6 · >99% ELIMINATED
Where Mt. Ararat can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
Why?
Each cell is how often the team finished in that place in 1,500 played-out seasons: an estimate. Empty cells can't be reached, proven by checking every combination of the remaining results. The outlined cell is where each team stands now.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Large South, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Lake Region can no longer reach the top 4. Every result still counts toward other teams' Crabtree numbers.
Why?
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. The highest and lowest places are exact: some combination of results reaches each of them, and none goes past them. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
How this is figured Crabtree step by step · tiebreakers · power rating
Crabtree index today: 90.079 (the MPA's playoff number, recomputed).
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Yarmouth | 8-0 | yes |
| Mt. Ararat | 0-8 | yes |
| Spruce Mountain | 6-2 | yes |
| Stearns | 8-0 | yes |
| Gray-NG | 5-2 | yes |
| Old Town | 7-1 | yes |
| Cape Elizabeth | 6-2 | yes |
| Traip | 1-7 | yes |
Own win% = 2 / 8 = 0.2500
Opponents pooled = 41 wins / 63 games = 0.6508
Crabtree = (0.2500 + 0.6508) × 100 = 90.079
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 8.000, tournament index 6.2500 over 8 scheduled games.
Our power rating
Rated #11 of Maine's 23 8-man teams. After 8 games the data can't yet tell Lake Region apart from an average team.
1.6 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -8.3 to 11.4) · rank #11 among 8-man teams · est. <1% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Large South, est. <1% in all of 8-man
8 games of evidence; 11% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8L team); from Week 7 on last season doesn't count at all. A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
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Quick answers
Can Lake Region still make the playoffs?
No. Lake Region is eliminated: no combination of the games left puts it in the 8-Man Large South top 4.
When is Lake Region's next game?
Lake Region's regular season is over (2-6). Playoff dates and sites come from the MPA; our bracket page adds them as they're posted.
More Lake Region: Basketball · All Lake Region sports