8-Man Large North standings
Old Town leads at 125.595 · top 4 of 5 make it · 4 teams clinched · through Sat 10/31 · MPA official table ↗
1OLDOld Town7-1125.595Clinched
2MDIMDI5-3105.357Clinched
3ELLEllsworth4-4102.381Clinched
4HLTHoulton1-773.790Clinched
5WATWaterville1-766.598Out
8-Man Large North · 5 teams · Crabtree order · tags appear only when proven · tap a team for its numbers
· results through Sat Oct 31
8-Man Large North: the top 4 of 5 teams by Crabtree Index make the playoffs. The regular season is over and the seeds are final: #1 Old Town, #2 Mount Desert Island, #3 Ellsworth and #4 Houlton.
8-Man Large North playoff bracket · How the Crabtree Index works · All 11 divisions
Show where each team can finish
8-Man Large North
4 of 5 make itFull table →1 Old TownCrabtree 125.595 7-1 125.5958 counted · all in Projected #1 · avg. finish 1.0Most likely #1 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23vs EllsworthW 68-22
- Fri 10/16vs WatervilleW 48-0
- Fri 10/9at Lake RegionW 60-20
- Fri 10/2at HoultonW 72-18
- Thu 9/24vs OOBL 12-22
- Fri 9/18vs Mt. AraratW 46-8
- Sat 9/12at MDIW 50-12
- Thu 9/3at OronoW 48-6
Regular season done.
Where Old Town can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #1 = its average finish (1.0). Most likely #1 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #1 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
2 MDICrabtree 105.357 5-3 105.3578 counted · all in Projected #2 · avg. finish 2.0Most likely #2 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Sat 10/24vs TelstarW 44-28
- Sat 10/17vs HoultonW 58-6
- Fri 10/9at EllsworthW 50-20
- Sat 10/3vs YarmouthL 0-60
- Sat 9/26at WatervilleW 44-16
- Fri 9/18at BucksportL 24-36
- Sat 9/12vs Old TownL 12-50
- Fri 9/4at Mt. AraratW 25-7
Regular season done.
Where MDI can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #2 = its average finish (2.0). Most likely #2 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #2 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
3 EllsworthCrabtree 102.381 4-4 102.3818 counted · all in Projected #3 · avg. finish 3.0Most likely #3 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23at Old TownL 22-68
- Fri 10/16at StearnsL 0-42
- Fri 10/9vs MDIL 20-50
- Fri 10/2vs Mt. AraratW 42-22
- Fri 9/25at YarmouthL 8-60
- Fri 9/18at HoultonW 50-14
- Fri 9/11vs WatervilleW 50-0
- Fri 9/4vs BucksportW 52-26
Regular season done.
Where Ellsworth can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #3 = its average finish (3.0). Most likely #3 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #3 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
4 HoultonCrabtree 73.790 1-7 73.7908 counted · all in Projected #4 · avg. finish 4.0Most likely #4 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Sat 10/24at Cape ElizabethL 6-42
- Sat 10/17at MDIL 6-58
- Sat 10/10vs WatervilleW 30-16
- Fri 10/2vs Old TownL 18-72
- Fri 9/25at DexterL 13-20
- Fri 9/18vs EllsworthL 14-50
- Sat 9/12vs StearnsL 0-56
- Fri 9/4at Washington AcademyL 14-36
Regular season done.
Where Houlton can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #4 = its average finish (4.0). Most likely #4 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #4 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
5 WatervilleCrabtree 66.598 1-7 66.5988 counted · all in Projected #5 · avg. finish 5.0Most likely #5 (>99%) ELIMINATED
- Sat 10/24vs Washington AcademyL 16-52
- Fri 10/16at Old TownL 0-48
- Sat 10/10at HoultonL 16-30
- Fri 10/2vs Cape ElizabethL 16-50
- Sat 9/26vs MDIL 16-44
- Fri 9/18at BoothbayL 8-30
- Fri 9/11at EllsworthL 0-50
- Sat 9/5vs Mount ViewW 32-18
Regular season done.
Where Waterville can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #5 = its average finish (5.0). Most likely #5 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #5 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
Why?
Projected: each team gets its own spot, in order of its average finish across the simulated seasons (avg. finish). Most likely: the single spot it finished in most often. Tap a team for the % at every spot. Estimates, and they can be wrong.
8-Man Large North
4 of 5 make itFull table →1 Old Town 7-1 Likely #1 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Old Town can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
2 MDI 5-3 Likely #2 · >99% CLINCHED
Where MDI can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
3 Ellsworth 4-4 Likely #3 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Ellsworth can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
4 Houlton 1-7 Likely #4 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Houlton can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
5 Waterville 1-7 Likely #5 · >99% ELIMINATED
Where Waterville can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
End of week 10: every place each team can hold once this week's games are final.
Why?
Each cell is how often the team finished in that place in 1,500 played-out seasons: an estimate. Empty cells can't be reached, proven by checking every combination of the remaining results. The outlined cell is where the team stands now. TB: same Crabtree number as another team, placed by the tiebreak order (head-to-head, division record, overall record, Heal points).
We add results as soon as we have them. The MPA updates its official table on its own schedule, so ours can be a step ahead for a day or two. 4 teams qualify (as labelled by the MPA).
Old Town leads 8-Man Large North at 125.595 after games through Oct 31. The top 4 of 5 teams make the playoffs. Old Town, MDI, Ellsworth and Houlton are mathematically in.
All 11 divisions: the Maine football playoff picture · What if?
What's the Crabtree Index? Crabtree points explained
The Crabtree Index is how Maine seeds high school football. It adds a team's own winning percentage to its opponents' combined winning percentage and multiplies by 100. A higher index means a better seed.
Worked example (a made-up team):
- Team A is 3-1, so its winning percentage is .750.
- Its opponents have won 7 of their 16 games combined, so their winning percentage is .4375.
- Crabtree Index = (.750 + .4375) × 100 = 118.750.
Three things that surprise people
- Your index can move when you don't play. Your opponents' results count, so their wins and losses change your number every week.
- Opponents' records are pooled, not averaged. We add up all their wins over all their games, the way the MPA does.
- Out-of-state and non-classified opponents count in your own record but as 0-0 in the opponents' pool.
Only completed games count. Heal points don't decide football seeds; they're only the fourth tiebreaker, after head-to-head, division record and overall record.
How the Crabtree Index works, step by step · See every division's standings live · Official standings are kept by the Maine Principals' Association.
Quick answers
Who leads 8-Man Large North football?
Old Town, at 125.595 on the Crabtree Index, after games through Oct 31.
How many 8-Man Large North teams make the playoffs?
The top 4 of 5, as labeled by the MPA.
Has anyone clinched a 8-Man Large North playoff spot?
Yes: Old Town, MDI, Ellsworth and Houlton are mathematically in. We say a team is in only when every possible result of the games left keeps it in the top 4.