Waterville football 2026
8-Man Large North
Where Waterville and its rivals finish
8-Man Large North
4 of 5 make itFull table →1 Old TownCrabtree 125.595 7-1 125.5958 counted · all in Projected #1 · avg. finish 1.0Most likely #1 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23vs EllsworthW 68-22
- Fri 10/16vs WatervilleW 48-0
- Fri 10/9at Lake RegionW 60-20
- Fri 10/2at HoultonW 72-18
- Thu 9/24vs OOBL 12-22
- Fri 9/18vs Mt. AraratW 46-8
- Sat 9/12at MDIW 50-12
- Thu 9/3at OronoW 48-6
Regular season done.
Where Old Town can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #1 = its average finish (1.0). Most likely #1 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #1 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
2 MDICrabtree 105.357 5-3 105.3578 counted · all in Projected #2 · avg. finish 2.0Most likely #2 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Sat 10/24vs TelstarW 44-28
- Sat 10/17vs HoultonW 58-6
- Fri 10/9at EllsworthW 50-20
- Sat 10/3vs YarmouthL 0-60
- Sat 9/26at WatervilleW 44-16
- Fri 9/18at BucksportL 24-36
- Sat 9/12vs Old TownL 12-50
- Fri 9/4at Mt. AraratW 25-7
Regular season done.
Where MDI can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #2 = its average finish (2.0). Most likely #2 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #2 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
3 EllsworthCrabtree 102.381 4-4 102.3818 counted · all in Projected #3 · avg. finish 3.0Most likely #3 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23at Old TownL 22-68
- Fri 10/16at StearnsL 0-42
- Fri 10/9vs MDIL 20-50
- Fri 10/2vs Mt. AraratW 42-22
- Fri 9/25at YarmouthL 8-60
- Fri 9/18at HoultonW 50-14
- Fri 9/11vs WatervilleW 50-0
- Fri 9/4vs BucksportW 52-26
Regular season done.
Where Ellsworth can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #3 = its average finish (3.0). Most likely #3 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #3 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
4 HoultonCrabtree 73.790 1-7 73.7908 counted · all in Projected #4 · avg. finish 4.0Most likely #4 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Sat 10/24at Cape ElizabethL 6-42
- Sat 10/17at MDIL 6-58
- Sat 10/10vs WatervilleW 30-16
- Fri 10/2vs Old TownL 18-72
- Fri 9/25at DexterL 13-20
- Fri 9/18vs EllsworthL 14-50
- Sat 9/12vs StearnsL 0-56
- Fri 9/4at Washington AcademyL 14-36
Regular season done.
Where Houlton can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #4 = its average finish (4.0). Most likely #4 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #4 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
5 WatervilleCrabtree 66.598 1-7 66.5988 counted · all in Projected #5 · avg. finish 5.0Most likely #5 (>99%) ELIMINATED
- Sat 10/24vs Washington AcademyL 16-52
- Fri 10/16at Old TownL 0-48
- Sat 10/10at HoultonL 16-30
- Fri 10/2vs Cape ElizabethL 16-50
- Sat 9/26vs MDIL 16-44
- Fri 9/18at BoothbayL 8-30
- Fri 9/11at EllsworthL 0-50
- Sat 9/5vs Mount ViewW 32-18
Regular season done.
Where Waterville can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #5 = its average finish (5.0). Most likely #5 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #5 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
Why?
Projected: each team gets its own spot, in order of its average finish across the simulated seasons (avg. finish). Most likely: the single spot it finished in most often. Tap a team for the % at every spot. Estimates, and they can be wrong.
8-Man Large North
4 of 5 make itFull table →1 Old Town 7-1 Likely #1 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Old Town can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
2 MDI 5-3 Likely #2 · >99% CLINCHED
Where MDI can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
3 Ellsworth 4-4 Likely #3 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Ellsworth can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
4 Houlton 1-7 Likely #4 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Houlton can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
5 Waterville 1-7 Likely #5 · >99% ELIMINATED
Where Waterville can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
Why?
Each cell is how often the team finished in that place in 1,500 played-out seasons: an estimate. Empty cells can't be reached, proven by checking every combination of the remaining results. The outlined cell is where each team stands now.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · 8-Man Large North, top 4 qualify · all divisions →
Waterville can no longer reach the top 4. Every result still counts toward other teams' Crabtree numbers.
Why?
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. The highest and lowest places are exact: some combination of results reaches each of them, and none goes past them. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
How this is figured Crabtree step by step · tiebreakers · power rating
Crabtree index today: 66.598 (the MPA's playoff number, recomputed).
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Mount View | 0-7 | yes |
| Ellsworth | 4-4 | yes |
| Boothbay | 5-2 | yes |
| MDI | 5-3 | yes |
| Cape Elizabeth | 6-2 | yes |
| Houlton | 1-7 | yes |
| Old Town | 7-1 | yes |
| Washington Academy | 5-2 | yes |
Own win% = 1 / 8 = 0.1250
Opponents pooled = 33 wins / 61 games = 0.5410
Crabtree = (0.1250 + 0.5410) × 100 = 66.598
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 4.000, tournament index 1.2500 over 8 scheduled games.
Our power rating
Rated #21 of Maine's 23 8-man teams, est. 18.0 points below an average team.
-18.0 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -27.9 to -8.2) · rank #21 among 8-man teams · est. <1% chance of being the top-rated team in 8-Man Large North, est. <1% in all of 8-man
8 games of evidence; 11% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average 8L team); from Week 7 on last season doesn't count at all. A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
Follow your team. It's free.
Your team on top of every page, plus its proven playoff paths. Want every team's paths? Plus from US$7/mo, 7 days free.
Quick answers
Can Waterville still make the playoffs?
No. Waterville is eliminated: no combination of the games left puts it in the 8-Man Large North top 4.
When is Waterville's next game?
Waterville's regular season is over (1-7). Playoff dates and sites come from the MPA; our bracket page adds them as they're posted.
More Waterville: Basketball · All Waterville sports