We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.

Bangor Boys

Class A North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.

Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →
Projected finish9 of 12 (204 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)6–9
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.12%10% before the conference meets
Projected points204
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)18:39
Pack: 1st to 5th runner302 s
Scoring five's projected places1 · 30 · 44 · 59 · 70
6th runner behind the 5th83 s
Against the teams around them
Brunswick (projected 8)-7 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Brewer171 pts
Their points vs the last team in+33

"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.

Bangor runners

Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.

Team #RunnerTimeLikely placeTop 30 est.
1 Runner 1SCORERprojected #1 overall 15:57 1–8 >99%top 30
2 Runner 2SCORERprojected #30 overall 18:06 13–47 52%top 30
3 Runner 3SCORERprojected #44 overall 18:47 26–57 16%top 30
4 Runner 4SCORERprojected #59 overall 19:28 40–64 3%top 30
5 Runner 5SCORERprojected #70 overall 20:58 62–75 <1%top 30
6 Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #78 overall 22:21 73–80 <1%top 30
7 Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #81 overall 23:07 77–81 <1%top 30

Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.