We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Winthrop Boys
Class C South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. MVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish1 of 14 (37 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)1
State meet linetop 7 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.96%
Top 3 est.>99%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points37
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)17:31
Pack: 1st to 5th runner114 s
Scoring five's projected places2 · 6 · 8 · 9 · 12
6th runner behind the 5th71 s
Against the teams around them
Maranacook (projected 2)+68 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Waynflete158 pts
Their points vs the last team in-121
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Winthrop runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #2 overall | 16:28 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #6 overall | 17:13 | >99%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #8 overall | 17:44 | >99%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #9 overall | 17:49 | 99%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #12 overall | 18:22 | 91%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #34 overall | 19:33 | 35%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #50 overall | 20:30 | 4%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.