We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Waynflete Boys
Class C South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. WMC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish7 of 14 (158 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)4–8
State meet linetop 7 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.6%
To States est.84%83% before the conference meets
Projected points158
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)19:23
Pack: 1st to 5th runner270 s
Scoring five's projected places4 · 15 · 23 · 58 · 67
6th runner behind the 5th31 s
Against the teams around them
Madison (projected 8)+27 s per runner
Their points vs the last team in+0
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Waynflete runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #4 overall | 17:01 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #15 overall | 18:29 | 90%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #23 overall | 18:49 | 76%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #58 overall | 21:03 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #67 overall | 21:31 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #76 overall | 22:03 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #83 overall | 22:42 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.