We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Scarborough Boys
Class A South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. SMAA. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish5 of 17 (125 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)2–7
State meet linetop 9 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.3%
Top 3 est.31%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points125
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)17:51
Pack: 1st to 5th runner98 s
Scoring five's projected places2 · 26 · 27 · 32 · 38
6th runner behind the 5th45 s
Against the teams around them
Bonny Eagle (projected 6)+16 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Massabesic309 pts
Their points vs the last team in-184
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Scarborough runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #2 overall | 16:42 | 98%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #26 overall | 17:54 | 61%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #27 overall | 18:04 | 51%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #32 overall | 18:14 | 41%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #38 overall | 18:20 | 35%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #57 overall | 19:05 | 7%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #59 overall | 19:10 | 6%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.