We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Sanford Boys
Class A South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. SMAA. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish7 of 17 (185 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)5–8
State meet linetop 9 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.3%
To States est.97%97% before the conference meets
Projected points185
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)18:26
Pack: 1st to 5th runner125 s
Scoring five's projected places12 · 15 · 45 · 52 · 66
6th runner behind the 5th12 s
Against the teams around them
South Portland (projected 8)+28 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Massabesic309 pts
Their points vs the last team in-124
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Sanford runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #12 overall | 17:28 | 81%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #15 overall | 17:35 | 76%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #45 overall | 18:39 | 21%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #52 overall | 18:54 | 11%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #66 overall | 19:33 | 2%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #72 overall | 19:45 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #88 overall | 20:15 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.