We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Presque Isle Boys
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish2 of 14 (92 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)2–4
State meet linetop 7 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.9%
Top 3 est.88%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points92
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)18:15
Pack: 1st to 5th runner103 s
Scoring five's projected places6 · 11 · 19 · 27 · 29
6th runner behind the 5th349 s
Against the teams around them
John Bapst (projected 3)+11 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Mt. Desert Island189 pts
Their points vs the last team in-97
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Presque Isle runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #6 overall | 17:14 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #11 overall | 17:53 | 94%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #19 overall | 18:21 | 80%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #27 overall | 18:48 | 58%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #29 overall | 18:57 | 50%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #96 overall | 24:46 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #100 overall | 29:42 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.