We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Orono Boys
Class C North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish3 of 11 (66 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)2–3
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.1%
Top 3 est.>99%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points66
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)18:02
Pack: 1st to 5th runner155 s
Scoring five's projected places1 · 10 · 17 · 18 · 20
6th runner behind the 5th10 s
Against the teams around them
Washington Academy (projected 4)+97 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Sumner182 pts
Their points vs the last team in-116
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Orono runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #1 overall | 16:27 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #10 overall | 17:45 | >99%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #17 overall | 18:25 | 98%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #18 overall | 18:30 | 98%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #20 overall | 19:02 | 89%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #22 overall | 19:12 | 84%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #26 overall | 19:21 | 78%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.