We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
MCI Boys
Class C North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish7 of 11 (184 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)6–8
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.39%28% before the conference meets
Projected points184
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)20:42
Pack: 1st to 5th runner151 s
Scoring five's projected places23 · 30 · 41 · 49 · 50
6th runner behind the 5th306 s
Against the teams around them
Sumner (projected 6)+0 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Sumner182 pts
Their points vs the last team in+2
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
MCI runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #23 overall | 19:16 | 81%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #30 overall | 19:51 | 49%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #41 overall | 20:52 | 7%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4Little dataSCORERprojected #49 overall | 21:42 | 11%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #50 overall | 21:47 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #78 overall | 26:53 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #84 overall | 31:23 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.