We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Maranacook Boys
Class C South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. MVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish2 of 14 (106 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)2–4
State meet linetop 7 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.3%
Top 3 est.80%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points106
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)18:40
Pack: 1st to 5th runner154 s
Scoring five's projected places5 · 13 · 24 · 29 · 38
6th runner behind the 5th1 s
Against the teams around them
Carrabec (projected 3)+15 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Waynflete158 pts
Their points vs the last team in-52
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Maranacook runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #5 overall | 17:11 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #13 overall | 18:24 | 92%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #24 overall | 18:54 | 74%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #29 overall | 19:05 | 63%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #38 overall | 19:45 | 25%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #39 overall | 19:46 | 24%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #43 overall | 20:12 | 9%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.