We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Lincoln Academy Boys
Class B South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish10 of 11 (228 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)6–10
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.21%21% before the conference meets
Projected points228
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)19:27
Pack: 1st to 5th runner70 s
Scoring five's projected places31 · 46 · 47 · 51 · 53
6th runner behind the 5th21 s
Against the teams around them
Lake Region (projected 9)-3 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Poland201 pts
Their points vs the last team in+27
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Lincoln Academy runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #31 overall | 18:42 | 53%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #46 overall | 19:28 | 16%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #47 overall | 19:29 | 16%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #51 overall | 19:46 | 7%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #53 overall | 19:52 | 6%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #58 overall | 20:13 | 2%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #59 overall | 20:16 | 2%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.