We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
John Bapst Boys
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish3 of 14 (106 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)2–4
State meet linetop 7 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.8%
Top 3 est.87%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points106
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)18:25
Pack: 1st to 5th runner86 s
Scoring five's projected places9 · 14 · 21 · 30 · 32
6th runner behind the 5th8 s
Against the teams around them
Erskine Academy (projected 4)+47 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Mt. Desert Island189 pts
Their points vs the last team in-83
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
John Bapst runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #9 overall | 17:36 | 98%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #14 overall | 18:02 | 92%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #21 overall | 18:27 | 78%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #30 overall | 18:58 | 51%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #32 overall | 19:03 | 44%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #35 overall | 19:11 | 37%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #54 overall | 20:33 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.