We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Houlton/GHCA Boys
Class C North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish1 of 11 (24 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)1
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.93%
Top 3 est.>99%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points24
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)16:47
Pack: 1st to 5th runner30 s
Scoring five's projected places2 · 3 · 4 · 7 · 8
6th runner behind the 5th98 s
Against the teams around them
George Stevens Academy (projected 2)+60 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Sumner182 pts
Their points vs the last team in-158
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Houlton/GHCA runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #2 overall | 16:32 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #3 overall | 16:46 | >99%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #4 overall | 16:46 | >99%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #7 overall | 16:52 | >99%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #8 overall | 17:02 | >99%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #19 overall | 18:40 | 96%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #37 overall | 20:28 | 18%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.