We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Hampden Academy Boys
Class A North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish2 of 12 (74 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)1–4
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.31%
Top 3 est.77%
To States est.99%98% before the conference meets
Projected points74
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)17:27
Pack: 1st to 5th runner52 s
Scoring five's projected places6 · 11 · 15 · 18 · 24
6th runner behind the 5th2 s
Against the teams around them
Messalonskee (projected 3)+3 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Brewer171 pts
Their points vs the last team in-97
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Hampden Academy runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #6 overall | 17:00 | 95%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #11 overall | 17:17 | 90%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #15 overall | 17:28 | 83%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #18 overall | 17:39 | 78%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #24 overall | 17:52 | 65%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #27 overall | 17:54 | 64%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #31 overall | 18:07 | 51%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.