We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Cony Boys
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish6 of 14 (185 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)4–10
State meet linetop 7 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.4%
To States est.62%66% before the conference meets
Projected points185
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)19:23
Pack: 1st to 5th runner145 s
Scoring five's projected places13 · 38 · 40 · 43 · 53
6th runner behind the 5th41 s
Against the teams around them
Mt. Desert Island (projected 7)+8 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Mt. Desert Island189 pts
Their points vs the last team in-4
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Cony runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #13 overall | 17:59 | 93%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #38 overall | 19:24 | 26%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #40 overall | 19:30 | 22%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #43 overall | 19:37 | 17%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #53 overall | 20:24 | 2%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #63 overall | 21:05 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #66 overall | 21:13 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.