We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Cheverus Boys
Class A South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. SMAA. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish13 of 17 (357 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)10–16
State meet linetop 9 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.6%6% before the conference meets
Projected points357
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)19:57
Pack: 1st to 5th runner214 s
Scoring five's projected places31 · 63 · 70 · 93 · 108
6th runner behind the 5th106 s
Against the teams around them
Deering (projected 12)-19 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Massabesic309 pts
Their points vs the last team in+48
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Cheverus runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #31 overall | 18:14 | 41%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #63 overall | 19:26 | 9%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #70 overall | 19:42 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #93 overall | 20:35 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #108 overall | 21:48 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #118 overall | 23:33 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7Little dataDISPLACERprojected #121 overall | 23:51 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.