We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Caribou Boys
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish1 of 14 (58 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)1–2
State meet linetop 7 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.83%
Top 3 est.>99%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points58
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)17:21
Pack: 1st to 5th runner177 s
Scoring five's projected places1 · 2 · 5 · 24 · 26
6th runner behind the 5th45 s
Against the teams around them
Presque Isle (projected 2)+54 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Mt. Desert Island189 pts
Their points vs the last team in-131
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Caribou runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #1 overall | 15:41 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #2 overall | 16:53 | >99%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #5 overall | 16:59 | >99%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #24 overall | 18:34 | 71%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #26 overall | 18:38 | 68%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #37 overall | 19:23 | 26%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #39 overall | 19:26 | 24%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.