We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Calais Boys
Class C North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish8 of 11 (196 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)6–8
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.13%26% before the conference meets
Projected points196
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)21:00
Pack: 1st to 5th runner118 s
Scoring five's projected places31 · 33 · 44 · 47 · 52
6th runner behind the 5th35 s
Against the teams around them
MCI (projected 7)-19 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Sumner182 pts
Their points vs the last team in+14
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Calais runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #31 overall | 20:06 | 35%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #33 overall | 20:09 | 33%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #44 overall | 21:10 | 2%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #47 overall | 21:32 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #52 overall | 22:04 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #57 overall | 22:39 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #79 overall | 28:09 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.