We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Thornton Academy Boys
Class A South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. SMAA. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish2 of 17 (94 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)2–6
State meet linetop 9 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.8%
Top 3 est.52%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points94
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)17:41
Pack: 1st to 5th runner76 s
Scoring five's projected places3 · 13 · 17 · 25 · 36
6th runner behind the 5th36 s
Against the teams around them
Falmouth (projected 3)-6 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Massabesic309 pts
Their points vs the last team in-215
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Thornton Academy runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #3 overall | 17:03 | 94%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #13 overall | 17:31 | 80%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #17 overall | 17:38 | 75%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #25 overall | 17:54 | 60%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #36 overall | 18:19 | 36%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #53 overall | 18:56 | 11%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #54 overall | 18:56 | 11%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.