We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Sumner Boys
Class C North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish6 of 11 (182 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)5–8
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.47%44% before the conference meets
Projected points182
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)20:42
Pack: 1st to 5th runner193 s
Scoring five's projected places25 · 32 · 38 · 40 · 55
6th runner behind the 5th80 s
Against the teams around them
MCI (projected 7)+0 s per runner
Their points vs the last team in+0
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Sumner runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #25 overall | 19:20 | 78%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #32 overall | 20:09 | 34%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #38 overall | 20:39 | 13%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #40 overall | 20:48 | 8%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5Little dataSCORERprojected #55 overall | 22:32 | 4%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #67 overall | 23:53 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7Little dataDISPLACERprojected #72 overall | 24:46 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.