We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Oceanside Boys
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish13 of 14 (288 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)11–13
State meet linetop 7 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points288
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)20:47
Pack: 1st to 5th runner147 s
Scoring five's projected places33 · 61 · 62 · 71 · 73
6th runner behind the 5th18 s
Against the teams around them
Foxcroft Academy (projected 12)+106 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Mt. Desert Island189 pts
Their points vs the last team in+99
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Oceanside runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #33 overall | 19:07 | 40%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #61 overall | 20:50 | <1%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #62 overall | 21:04 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #71 overall | 21:24 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #73 overall | 21:34 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #74 overall | 21:52 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #87 overall | 22:46 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.