We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Medomak Valley Boys
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish8 of 14 (196 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)5–10
State meet linetop 7 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.1%
To States est.43%39% before the conference meets
Projected points196
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)19:30
Pack: 1st to 5th runner304 s
Scoring five's projected places4 · 28 · 42 · 51 · 77
6th runner behind the 5th126 s
Against the teams around them
Mt. Desert Island (projected 7)+0 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Mt. Desert Island189 pts
Their points vs the last team in+7
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Medomak Valley runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #4 overall | 16:56 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #28 overall | 18:49 | 60%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #42 overall | 19:33 | 20%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #51 overall | 20:10 | 4%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #77 overall | 22:01 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #93 overall | 24:07 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #94 overall | 24:26 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.