We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Marshwood Boys
Class A South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. SMAA. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish15 of 17 (365 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)10–16
State meet linetop 9 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.10%11% before the conference meets
Projected points365
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)19:54
Pack: 1st to 5th runner167 s
Scoring five's projected places46 · 68 · 76 · 79 · 105
6th runner behind the 5th8 s
Against the teams around them
Windham (projected 14)+0 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Massabesic309 pts
Their points vs the last team in+56
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Marshwood runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #46 overall | 18:40 | 20%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #68 overall | 19:37 | 1%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #76 overall | 19:52 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #79 overall | 19:54 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5Little dataSCORERprojected #105 overall | 21:27 | 2%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #106 overall | 21:36 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #109 overall | 21:48 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.