We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Lisbon Boys
Class C South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. MVC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish12 of 14 (333 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)12–13
State meet linetop 7 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points333
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)22:18
Pack: 1st to 5th runner202 s
Scoring five's projected places48 · 70 · 73 · 87 · 89
6th runner behind the 5th37 s
Against the teams around them
Traip Academy (projected 11)+11 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Waynflete158 pts
Their points vs the last team in+175
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Lisbon runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #48 overall | 20:26 | 6%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #70 overall | 21:47 | <1%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #73 overall | 21:54 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #87 overall | 23:37 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #89 overall | 23:48 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #94 overall | 24:25 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #96 overall | 25:08 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.