We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Lewiston Boys
Class A North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish11 of 12 (294 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)10–12
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points294
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)20:04
Pack: 1st to 5th runner172 s
Scoring five's projected places39 · 51 · 64 · 67 · 73
6th runner behind the 5th4 s
Against the teams around them
Edward Little (projected 10)-29 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Brewer171 pts
Their points vs the last team in+123
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Lewiston runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #39 overall | 18:30 | 30%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #51 overall | 19:11 | 6%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #64 overall | 20:25 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #67 overall | 20:48 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #73 overall | 21:23 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #74 overall | 21:26 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #75 overall | 21:44 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.