We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Hermon Boys
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 6 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish11 of 14 (223 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)7–12
State meet linetop 7 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.14%12% before the conference meets
Projected points223
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)19:55
Pack: 1st to 5th runner127 s
Scoring five's projected places25 · 41 · 50 · 55 · 58
6th runner behind the 5th113 s
Against the teams around them
Nokomis (projected 10)-12 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Mt. Desert Island189 pts
Their points vs the last team in+34
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Hermon runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #25 overall | 18:37 | 68%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #41 overall | 19:33 | 19%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #50 overall | 20:06 | 4%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #55 overall | 20:36 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #58 overall | 20:44 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #86 overall | 22:38 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.