We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Gray-New Gloucester Boys
Class B South regional, Twin Brook Recreation Area, Cumberland. WMC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish8 of 11 (207 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)6–10
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course+3 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.20%20% before the conference meets
Projected points207
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)19:27
Pack: 1st to 5th runner152 s
Scoring five's projected places16 · 24 · 39 · 65 · 67
6th runner behind the 5th7 s
Against the teams around them
Wells (projected 7)-6 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Poland201 pts
Their points vs the last team in+6
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Gray-New Gloucester runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #16 overall | 18:12 | 78%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #24 overall | 18:35 | 60%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #39 overall | 19:04 | 33%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #65 overall | 20:39 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #67 overall | 20:44 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #68 overall | 20:51 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #78 overall | 22:18 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.