We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Edward Little Boys
Class A North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish10 of 12 (279 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)9–11
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points279
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)19:35
Pack: 1st to 5th runner151 s
Scoring five's projected places45 · 46 · 56 · 60 · 72
6th runner behind the 5th174 s
Against the teams around them
Bangor (projected 9)-56 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Brewer171 pts
Their points vs the last team in+108
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Edward Little runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #45 overall | 18:48 | 17%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #46 overall | 18:50 | 16%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #56 overall | 19:25 | 3%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #60 overall | 19:32 | 2%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #72 overall | 21:20 | <1%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #82 overall | 24:14 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #84 overall | 34:48 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.