We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Bucksport Boys
Class C North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. PVC. 5 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish5 of 11 (146 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)4–6
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.>99%est. >99% before the conference meets
Projected points146
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)20:14
Pack: 1st to 5th runner583 s
Scoring five's projected places5 · 6 · 16 · 56 · 77
6th runner behind the 5thno 6th runner
Against the teams around them
Sumner (projected 6)+27 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Sumner182 pts
Their points vs the last team in-36
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Bucksport runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #5 overall | 16:50 | >99%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #6 overall | 16:51 | >99%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #16 overall | 18:23 | 98%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #56 overall | 22:35 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #77 overall | 26:33 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.