We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Brewer Boys
Class A North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 7 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish6 of 12 (171 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)5–9
State meet linetop 6 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.2%
To States est.36%40% before the conference meets
Projected points171
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)18:22
Pack: 1st to 5th runner119 s
Scoring five's projected places8 · 23 · 42 · 48 · 50
6th runner behind the 5th163 s
Against the teams around them
Mt. Ararat (projected 7)+1 s per runner
Their points vs the last team in+0
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Brewer runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #8 overall | 17:08 | 93%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #23 overall | 17:51 | 68%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #42 overall | 18:45 | 20%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #48 overall | 19:02 | 10%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #50 overall | 19:07 | 7%top 30 |
| 6 | Runner 6DISPLACERprojected #76 overall | 21:50 | <1%top 30 |
| 7 | Runner 7DISPLACERprojected #77 overall | 21:53 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.