We don't show this to promote or demote any athlete. Predictions are data only and can be wrong.
Belfast Boys
Class B North regional, Troy Howard Middle School, Belfast. KVAC. 5 runners entered to run.
Projection · frozen Fri Oct 23, 11:30 PM, before the race · now graded →Projected finish14 of 14 (384 pts)
Likely finish (8 of 10 races)14
State meet linetop 7 teams
Simulated races4,000
Results throughOct 20
Course-37 s vs median
Sat forecast, 10 AM–1 PMnot stored in the freeze
Chance to win est.<1%
Top 3 est.<1%
To States est.<1%est. <1% before the conference meets
Projected points384
Team strength
Average of the scoring five (projected 5K)22:40
Pack: 1st to 5th runner208 s
Scoring five's projected places64 · 78 · 81 · 91 · 95
6th runner behind the 5thno 6th runner
Against the teams around them
Oceanside (projected 13)-113 s per runner
Last team inside the cut: Mt. Desert Island189 pts
Their points vs the last team in+195
"+ s per runner" = how much slower that team's five average (a minus = faster). Fewer points is better.
Belfast runners
Runners are shown by number: runner 1 is the team's first runner in our projection. We don't show names (coach accounts only); times and places are the same for everyone.
| Team # | Runner | Time | Top 30 est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Runner 1SCORERprojected #64 overall | 21:11 | <1%top 30 |
| 2 | Runner 2SCORERprojected #78 overall | 22:03 | <1%top 30 |
| 3 | Runner 3SCORERprojected #81 overall | 22:22 | <1%top 30 |
| 4 | Runner 4SCORERprojected #91 overall | 23:06 | <1%top 30 |
| 5 | Runner 5SCORERprojected #95 overall | 24:39 | <1%top 30 |
Chances, not calls: from 4,000 simulated regionals with the entered runners only. The MPA decides who qualifies. This is the projection we froze before the race. How we got the numbers.