Belfast football 2026
Class D North
Where Belfast and its rivals finish
Class D North
6 of 7 make itFull table →1 WinslowCrabtree 137.500 7-1 137.5008 counted · all in Projected #1 · avg. finish 1.0Most likely #1 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Sat 10/24vs MadisonW 50-18
- Sat 10/17vs MorseW 30-6
- Fri 10/9at MCIW 38-6
- Fri 10/2at MattanawcookW 44-0
- Sat 9/26vs FreeportW 14-6
- Sat 9/19vs Oak HillW 46-6
- Fri 9/11at John BapstW 26-6
- Fri 9/4at WellsL 13-14
Regular season done.
Where Winslow can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #1 = its average finish (1.0). Most likely #1 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #1 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
2 MCICrabtree 103.125 6-2 103.1258 counted · all in Projected #2 · avg. finish 2.0Most likely #2 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23vs DirigoW 23-16
- Fri 10/16at BelfastW 17-0
- Fri 10/9vs WinslowL 6-38
- Fri 10/2at MadisonW 21-12
- Fri 9/25at HampdenW 28-13
- Fri 9/18vs MattanawcookW 27-25
- Fri 9/11at PolandL 14-34
- Fri 9/4vs Oak HillW 42-8
Regular season done.
Where MCI can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #2 = its average finish (2.0). Most likely #2 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #2 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
3 John BapstCrabtree 98.438 4-4 98.4388 counted · all in Projected #3 · avg. finish 3.0Most likely #3 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Fri 10/23vs WinthropL 6-14
- Fri 10/16at MattanawcookW 44-26
- Sat 10/10vs Mountain ValleyW 36-14
- Fri 10/2at FoxcroftL 14-45
- Sat 9/26at Oak HillW 26-12
- Thu 9/17vs DirigoW 18-6
- Fri 9/11vs WinslowL 6-26
- Fri 9/4at MadisonL 40-46
Regular season done.
Where John Bapst can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #3 = its average finish (3.0). Most likely #3 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #3 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
4 MattanawcookCrabtree 89.063 3-5 89.0638 counted · all in Projected #4 · avg. finish 4.0Most likely #4 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Sat 10/24at Oak HillW 56-34
- Fri 10/16vs John BapstL 26-44
- Fri 10/9at LisbonL 6-27
- Fri 10/2vs WinslowL 0-44
- Fri 9/25vs BelfastW 41-20
- Fri 9/18at MCIL 25-27
- Fri 9/11vs Mountain ValleyW 14-6
- Sat 9/5at FreeportL 6-42
Regular season done.
Where Mattanawcook can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #4 = its average finish (4.0). Most likely #4 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #4 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
5 MadisonCrabtree 85.938 2-6 85.9388 counted · all in Projected #5 · avg. finish 5.0Most likely #5 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Sat 10/24at WinslowL 18-50
- Fri 10/16vs PolandW 34-28
- Fri 10/9at BelfastL 14-16
- Tue 10/6at LisbonL 18-20
- Fri 10/2vs MCIL 12-21
- Fri 9/25vs FoxcroftL 7-41
- Thu 9/17at WinthropL 8-38
- Fri 9/4vs John BapstW 46-40
Regular season done.
Where Madison can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #5 = its average finish (5.0). Most likely #5 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #5 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
6 Oak HillCrabtree 70.313 1-7 70.3138 counted · all in Projected #6 · avg. finish 6.0Most likely #6 (>99%) CLINCHED
- Sat 10/24vs MattanawcookL 34-56
- Fri 10/16at LisbonL 14-47
- Fri 10/9at YorkL 28-40
- Sat 10/3vs WinthropL 0-35
- Sat 9/26vs John BapstL 12-26
- Sat 9/19at WinslowL 6-46
- Sat 9/12vs BelfastW 49-36
- Fri 9/4at MCIL 8-42
Regular season done.
Where Oak Hill can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #6 = its average finish (6.0). Most likely #6 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #6 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
7 BelfastCrabtree 64.063 2-6 64.0638 counted · all in Projected #7 · avg. finish 7.0Most likely #7 (>99%) ELIMINATED
- Fri 10/23at MorseL 8-42
- Fri 10/16vs MCIL 0-17
- Fri 10/9vs MadisonW 16-14
- Fri 10/2at Mountain ValleyL 0-20
- Fri 9/25at MattanawcookL 20-41
- Fri 9/18vs OceansideL 6-44
- Sat 9/12at Oak HillL 36-49
- Fri 9/4vs BrewerW 28-26
Regular season done.
Where Belfast can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Projected #7 = its average finish (7.0). Most likely #7 = the single most common spot (>99%). Finishes #7 in almost every simulated season.
Tap any % for the math.
Why?
Projected: each team gets its own spot, in order of its average finish across the simulated seasons (avg. finish). Most likely: the single spot it finished in most often. Tap a team for the % at every spot. Estimates, and they can be wrong.
Class D North
6 of 7 make itFull table →1 Winslow 7-1 Likely #1 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Winslow can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
2 MCI 6-2 Likely #2 · >99% CLINCHED
Where MCI can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
3 John Bapst 4-4 Likely #3 · >99% CLINCHED
Where John Bapst can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
4 Mattanawcook 3-5 Likely #4 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Mattanawcook can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
5 Madison 2-6 Likely #5 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Madison can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
6 Oak Hill 1-7 Likely #6 · >99% CLINCHED
Where Oak Hill can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
7 Belfast 2-6 Likely #7 · >99% ELIMINATED
Where Belfast can finish · % from the simulated seasons · "–" can't happen (proven)
Tap any % for the math.
Why?
Each cell is how often the team finished in that place in 1,500 played-out seasons: an estimate. Empty cells can't be reached, proven by checking every combination of the remaining results. The outlined cell is where each team stands now.
Want to see how the standings could change? Open the what-if simulator →
Playoff picture · Class D North, top 6 qualify · all divisions →
Belfast can no longer reach the top 6. Every result still counts toward other teams' Crabtree numbers.
Why?
"Clinched" and "eliminated" are exact: they hold for every possible combination of remaining results. The highest and lowest places are exact: some combination of results reaches each of them, and none goes past them. Seeds use the same Crabtree method as the standings. Nothing here is a prediction.
How this is figured Crabtree step by step · tiebreakers · power rating
Crabtree index today: 64.063 (the MPA's playoff number, recomputed).
Crabtree, shown step by step
| Opponent played | Their W-L | Counts? |
|---|---|---|
| Brewer | 1-7 | yes |
| Oak Hill | 1-7 | yes |
| Oceanside | 5-3 | yes |
| Mattanawcook | 3-5 | yes |
| Mountain Valley | 2-6 | yes |
| Madison | 2-6 | yes |
| MCI | 6-2 | yes |
| Morse | 5-3 | yes |
Own win% = 2 / 8 = 0.2500
Opponents pooled = 25 wins / 64 games = 0.3906
Crabtree = (0.2500 + 0.3906) × 100 = 64.063
Heal tiebreaker: preliminary index 8.750, tournament index 16.2500 over 8 scheduled games.
Our power rating
Rated #55 of Maine's 55 11-man teams, est. 31.6 points below an average team.
-31.6 points vs. an average Maine team (80% band -40.2 to -22.9) · rank #55 among 11-man teams · est. <1% chance of being the top-rated team in Class D North, est. <1% in all of 11-man
8 games of evidence; 11% of today's number is still the starting assumption (average D team); from Week 7 on last season doesn't count at all. A band that touches 0 means the data can't yet separate this team from average. How the rating works →
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Quick answers
Can Belfast still make the playoffs?
No. Belfast is eliminated: no combination of the games left puts it in the Class D North top 6.
When is Belfast's next game?
Belfast's regular season is over (2-6). Playoff dates and sites come from the MPA; our bracket page adds them as they're posted.
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